Tom Lee outlines the 2026 crypto market roadmap: Bitcoin hits new highs in January, Ethereum enters a "super cycle"

Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder and Chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies Tom Lee made bold predictions in a recent interview, stating that Bitcoin is expected to reach a new all-time high before the end of January 2026, while emphasizing that Ethereum is currently “seriously undervalued.”

Lee outlined a panoramic view of the 2026 crypto market: the first half will be volatile due to institutional rebalancing, but a strong rally may occur in the second half. Additionally, his company Bitmine has increased its Ethereum holdings to 4,143,500 ETH, accounting for 3.43% of the total supply, actively betting on the future development of the Ethereum ecosystem. This series of insights and actions provides a clear roadmap from a seasoned Wall Street observer for a market that was somewhat uncertain earlier this year.

Wall Street Bulls Speak Again: Bitcoin’s New High Is Imminent, But Buckle Up

On Monday, local time, renowned Wall Street analyst and Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee expressed a strongly bullish view on cryptocurrencies and the stock market on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” He explicitly stated that the current Bitcoin rally is not over, and the price could hit a new record before January 2026. This statement comes after a correction at the end of 2025, injecting confidence into the new year’s investment sentiment.

Lee admitted that his team’s previous expectation that Bitcoin would peak before December 2025 was “overly optimistic,” but he firmly believes a new milestone is imminent. According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin reached a historical high of about $126,000 in October 2025 but did not meet Lee’s predicted $200,000 target from August last year. By December 31, 2025, Bitcoin’s price had fallen back to around $88,500. Lee’s latest forecast suggests he believes Bitcoin will begin a significant upward move from its current level (around $93,874.91 at the time of recording), and investors should not rush to conclude that Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other cryptocurrencies have topped out.

However, Lee is not blindly optimistic. He sets the tone for 2026 as “volatile but ultimately positive.” He warns that before a strong second half, the market must first digest the pain caused by recent “institutional rebalancing” and “strategic resets.” Viewing short-term volatility as a necessary prelude to a long-term bull market reflects his deep understanding of market cycle logic—that substantial gains often require sufficient chip turnover and emotional consolidation.

Analyzing Bitcoin Trends: Why Is January a Key Time Window?

Tom Lee marks January 2026 as a critical month for Bitcoin potential breakthroughs. This judgment is not unfounded. From historical seasonal patterns, market sentiment cycles, to macro capital flows, early in the year often contains special momentum. For investors, understanding the logic behind Lee’s judgment is more important than simply memorizing a predicted number.

First, from technical and psychological perspectives, the widespread correction at the end of 2025 creates room for a rebound. Many trend-chasing short-term investors may have already exited, and leverage in the market has been somewhat cleaned out. When pessimism spreads, it often signals a good time for long-term investors to quietly position. Lee’s forecast can be seen as confirmation of the potential rebound after this “market clearing.” He points out that the current “reset” is not a structural problem but a necessary digestion phase after years of large gains in risk assets.

Second, macroeconomic support should not be overlooked. Lee also expressed extreme optimism about the US stock market, predicting the S&P 500 will reach 7,700 points by the end of 2026, citing the fundamental resilience of the US economy and productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence. The strong performance of stocks, especially tech stocks, tends to improve overall risk appetite, with some liquidity spilling over into high-risk, high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies. This stock-to-crypto correlation has been evident in past bull cycles.

Finally, market narratives are quietly shifting. With the maturation of Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2025 and increased involvement of traditional financial institutions, the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” and an “institutional allocation asset” is becoming more solid. Any macroeconomic volatility or geopolitical uncertainty could prompt funds to reassess Bitcoin’s hedging value. Lee’s reaffirmation of a bullish outlook at this time may also be sensing a narrative shift—focusing less on speculation and more on broader asset allocation needs.

Why Does Tom Lee Say Ethereum Is “Seriously Undervalued” and Bet on a “Super Cycle”?

Among many crypto assets, Tom Lee shows extraordinary favor for Ethereum. He publicly states that Ethereum is “seriously undervalued” and compares its future prospects to Bitcoin’s “super cycle” from 2017 to 2021. This analogy is impactful; if true, it could mean Ethereum will enter a multi-year phase of value discovery and price expansion. To support his view, Lee is actively voting with his actions: his company Bitmine Immersion Technologies continues to increase its Ethereum holdings.

Lee’s valuation of Ethereum is based on deeper strategic thinking. He sees holding Ethereum as a “necessary move on the balance sheet,” rather than just speculative betting. He explains, “Acquiring an asset with the potential to appreciate 10x or more is a strategic necessity for any modern enterprise’s financial management.” This statement elevates crypto from a fringe speculative asset to a core asset related to corporate financial strategy, reflecting how institutional thinking is deeply influencing crypto investment logic.

Although Lee’s prediction last year that Ethereum would reach $15,000 by December 2025 did not materialize (Ethereum’s peak in 2025 was $4,830, with December trading around $3,300), he has not changed his core thesis. He believes current Ethereum value does not fully reflect its network effects, developer ecosystem, and leadership in key sectors like DeFi and RWA tokenization. As US regulators clarify the crypto industry’s framework and Wall Street’s acceptance of stablecoins and asset tokenization grows, Ethereum’s valuation logic as a foundational infrastructure is being reassessed.

Bitmine Immersion Ethereum Key Data

Total Holdings: 4,143,500 ETH

Percentage of Total Supply: approx. 3.43% (Ethereum total supply about 120.7 million)

Staked ETH: approx. 659,219 ETH (worth about $210 million, at $3,196/ETH)

Recent Increase: +32,977 ETH in the past week

Company Total Assets: crypto and cash holdings valued at about $14.2 billion

Other Holdings: 192 Bitcoin, cash of $915 million

Bitmine’s Aggressive Strategy: From Largest Holder to Ecosystem Builder

Tom Lee’s bullish outlook aligns perfectly with his responsibilities at Bitmine Immersion Technologies. The latest announcement shows that Bitmine has become the world’s largest publicly listed Ethereum holder, with 4,143,500 ETH, about 3.43% of the total supply. This massive holding is not just a static asset reserve but a core part of active strategic plans.

The company’s ambitions go beyond mere holdings. Bitmine plans to launch its commercial “U.S. Validator Network” (MAVAN) in 2026 to stake its Ethereum holdings. Lee revealed that staking Ethereum alone could generate approximately $374 million annually (based on a 2.81% consensus layer reward rate). MAVAN aims to become a leading staking solution, transforming Bitmine from a passive asset holder into an active Ethereum network participant and revenue generator, deeply tied to Ethereum’s ecosystem success.

To support its expansion, Lee is actively pushing for governance adjustments. He calls on shareholders to approve an amendment at the January 15 annual meeting to increase authorized common shares. This aims to provide flexibility for future capital market activities (such as fundraising), stock splits, and selective acquisitions. Lee emphasizes that all these measures are “to create value for shareholders,” including increasing Ethereum assets per share, optimizing the yield of digital asset balance sheets, and investing in breakthrough projects (moonshots).

Bitmine’s case offers an excellent example of how institutions can participate in the crypto economy. It combines debt management (long-term core asset holdings), yield strategies (staking), and venture investing (ecosystem projects), and allows traditional investors to indirectly share in crypto growth through its publicly traded stock (average daily trading volume of $980 million). This hybrid model is increasingly being emulated by listed companies.

Outlook for 2026: Opportunities in Volatility, Two Major Themes to Watch

Tom Lee uses the metaphor of “first and second halves” to describe the 2026 crypto market. He believes the turbulence in the first half mainly stems from institutional rebalancing, which is a healthy profit-taking and repositioning process that will lay the foundation for a rally in the second half. For ordinary investors, understanding and adapting to this volatility rather than being frightened by it is key to success throughout the year.

Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, Lee highlights macro and industry trends supporting his optimism. First, the surge in AI-driven demand for “identity verification and data provenance” aligns naturally with blockchain technology. Second, the increasing acceptance of cryptocurrencies by younger generations provides a long-term demand base and positive sentiment. The integration of these structural trends could foster a new generation of decentralized applications beyond simple price speculation.

Operationally, Lee’s view suggests a “buy-the-dip and hold long-term” strategy. For investors who believe in the “super cycle” theory, the market correction caused by short-term institutional rebalancing may be an opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin and Ethereum. Additionally, paying attention to companies like Bitmine, deeply involved in ecosystem development, with clear business models and large asset reserves, offers a more indirect but potentially more stable way to participate. Ultimately, as Lee summarizes: “For 2026, we have many reasons to remain optimistic.”