After the turbulent shocks in October and November 2025, Bitcoin has been consolidating in the $85,000 to $90,000 range for several weeks. Analysts point out that the market still lacks clear bullish catalysts, and Bitcoin’s sideways movement may continue.
Gerry O’Shea, Head of Global Market Insights at Hashdex, stated: “Although in the coming weeks, shifts in U.S. monetary policy or progress on Congress’s cryptocurrency legislation could bring some positives, at this stage, Bitcoin remains in a range-bound pattern.”
Jim Ferraioli, Director of Cryptocurrency Research and Strategy at the Center for Financial Research under Charles Schwab, also holds a relatively conservative view. He noted that Schwab does not set specific Bitcoin price targets, but overall, 2026 still has the potential to be an active year. However, from the perspective of the cryptocurrency market, this year might be relatively “boring.”
Jim Ferraioli further analyzed that this correction is not only significant but also an essential step toward asset maturity: “Looking back at the November 2022 lows, Bitcoin surged to the all-time high of $126,000 last October, increasing 8-fold in three years. The market is now in a digestion phase, requiring time to absorb this huge rally.”
ETF Spotlight: Institutional Giants Still on the Sidelines
It is worth noting that the market structure has quietly changed. In the months following the all-time high, on-chain activity significantly cooled down, replaced by ETF capital flows becoming the dominant force influencing prices.
Jim Ferraioli pointed out: “With trading fees low, long-term holders taking profits, and Bitcoin balances on exchanges dropping to lows, the current market trend is entirely driven by ETF capital flows.”
While this structural shift makes investing in Bitcoin more accessible, it may also distort short-term market signals. Jim Ferraioli added:
The truly large institutional players have not yet fully entered the market. Once relevant legislation is enacted, it could push Bitcoin prices higher.
“Crypto Winter” Incoming?
Hyunsu Jung, CEO of Hyperion DeFi, noted that Bitcoin’s narrative logic is changing. As the ETF capital influx recedes since the beginning of the year, digital assets appear less attractive compared to other asset classes. Without a new wave of institutional funds or a shift in the overall economy (such as rate cuts), he expects Bitcoin to remain in a “sideways consolidation.”
Will Reeves, CEO of fintech company Fold, expressed a more straightforward view, believing this is purely a matter of “supply and demand cycle”:
Bitcoin is currently severely undervalued, and the market is waiting for selling pressure to subside and for a new wave of buying to come in.
As for whether the market has entered a new “crypto winter,” opinions still vary. Jim Ferraioli said: “According to traditional definitions, Bitcoin is undoubtedly in a bear market. But considering Bitcoin’s high volatility, a 30% correction is not uncommon.”
Although Bitcoin and the US stock market are always somewhat correlated, Bitcoin still has its own drivers: money supply, a deflationary supply growth mechanism, and most importantly, adoption rate. Whether the adoption rate can break through remains the biggest question this year.
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