Bitcoin briefly plummeted last Monday, approaching the $60,000 mark and triggering market panic. However, according to research firm K33, this sharp decline likely signals that a “phase bottom” has been established. K33 believes that whether in spot, ETF, or derivatives markets, signs of a “capitulation sell-off” are emerging.
K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde, in a report released on Tuesday, cited a series of “extreme abnormal data” to support this view. He pointed out that the market experienced its first fund rate collapse since the U.S. banking crisis in March 2023, and option skew levels only seen during the worst part of the 2022 bear market. Additionally, trading volume surged to the 95th percentile.
The firm also noted that momentum indicators have fallen to rare levels. Continuous selling since January 20 has caused Bitcoin’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) to drop to 15.9, the sixth-lowest oversold level since 2015, only surpassed by March 2020 and November 2018. RSI is mainly used to measure the speed and magnitude of price changes, fluctuating between 0 and 100.
Lunde pointed out that during the previous two instances when RSI was this low, it corresponded to cyclical bottoms, further reinforcing the idea that the recent decline may be forming a phase bottom.
Market sentiment has also collapsed. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index briefly fell to 6, the second-lowest level in history, nearly reaching a state of full panic, indicating that investor pessimism about Bitcoin dropping to $60,000 has reached an extreme.
Lunde stated that price volatility was accompanied by “unusually active trading.” He wrote that on February 6, Bitcoin spot trading volume reached $32 billion within two days, setting a new record, with trading volumes on February 5 and 6 reaching the 95th percentile. Such conditions have only occurred once before, during the FTX collapse.
Lunde analyzed that such extreme data often indicate that prices are hitting phase extremes, typically followed by consolidation and possibly testing local lows again.
Derivatives data also reflect extreme market panic. According to K33, on February 6, the daily funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts suddenly dropped to -15.46%, the lowest since March 2023; the 7-day average funding rate also fell to -3.5%.
Furthermore, options market skewness entered an “extreme defensive zone,” with hedging sentiment comparable to during the LUNA collapse, Three Arrows Capital (3AC) liquidation, and FTX bankruptcy periods.
Regarding Bitcoin spot ETFs, BlackRock’s IBIT hit a record daily trading volume on February 5, surpassing $10 billion and trading 284.4 million shares. However, IBIT also recorded its fifth-largest daily net outflow since listing. Although funds flowed back in over the following days, since last Tuesday, IBIT’s net outflow has totaled 13,670 Bitcoins.
Combining multiple extreme data points—volatility, trading volume, returns, skewness, and ETF fund flows—Lunde stated that the probability of $60,000 serving as a phase bottom is very high.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Bitmine advances to the NYSE Main Board! Tom Lee: U.S. stocks may have bottomed out, and selling pressure on Ethereum could ease
Bitmine has officially transferred from the NYSE American board to the main board in the United States, marking an important milestone for the company. Despite a sharp drop in its stock price, it has still increased the share repurchase plan amount to $4 billion. The company holds a large amount of Ether, and it expects that a rebound in the crypto market will help improve its assets and stock price performance.
CryptoCity12m ago
Bitmine advances to the NYSE main board! Tom Lee: U.S. stocks may have hit bottom, and selling pressure on Ether could ease
Bitmine has officially moved from the U.S. segment of the New York Stock Exchange to the main board, marking an important milestone for the company. Although its share price has fallen sharply, it has still increased the share repurchase plan limit to $4 billion. The company holds a large amount of Ether, and it expects that a rebound in the crypto market will help improve its assets and share price performance.
CryptoCity3h ago
Bitmine Upgrades to the NYSE Main Board! Tom Lee: US stocks may have bottomed out, and selling pressure on Ether could ease
Bitmine has officially moved from the New York Stock Exchange U.S. board to the main board, marking a major milestone for the company. Despite a sharp drop in the stock price, it has still increased the share repurchase plan to $4.0 billion. The company holds a large amount of Ethereum, and expects that a rebound in the crypto market will help strengthen its assets and stock price performance.
CryptoCity6h ago
RAVE’s hype surge triggers a flood of copycat coin mania, as FF and INX expose the “pump-and-dump” scheme
Recently, altcoins represented by RAVE have sparked a fierce investment craze, but some old star projects like FF and INX have used this wave of hype to carry out “pump-and-dump” operations—rapidly driving up coin prices to lure retail investors to buy, and then dumping them heavily, causing the price to plunge rapidly. Such behavior not only exposes the project team’s funding difficulties, but also damages investors’ trust. Investors need to stay alert to signals like abnormal short-term surges in order to avoid the risk of being manipulated by the market.
MarketWhisper6h ago
Bitmine gets promoted to the NYSE main board! Tom Lee: US stocks may have bottomed out, and sell pressure on Ether could ease
Bitmine has officially moved from the NYSE American board to the main board, marking an important milestone for the company. Despite the sharp decline in its share price, it has still increased the share repurchase plan amount to $4 billion. The company holds a large amount of Ethereum, and it expects that a rebound in the crypto market will help boost its assets and share price performance.
CryptoCity9h ago
Why Is Bitcoin Up Today? Hormuz Blockade Triggers Short Squeeze and a BTC Test of $75k
On April 13, Bitcoin rose from its early-session low of 70,741 to trade as high as $74,900 during the session, approaching the $75,000 level. The main drivers came from two directions: after Trump ordered the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, traders began to view Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge asset; and a massive net short position that had been building as funding rates stayed persistently negative was met with liquidation, triggering a chain of liquidations totaling millions of dollars near the $70,000 support level.
MarketWhisper11h ago
