Macroeconomic uncertainty is accelerating accumulation and gradually evolving into an important variable affecting risk assets. Since 2025, the overall performance of the cryptocurrency market has been weak, forming a stark contrast to Bitcoin's strong rally in 2024. In 2024, Bitcoin delivered substantial returns for long-term holders and traders, but the current cycle is clearly under pressure. The core of the change lies in the macro environment. The continuation of tariff policies during the Trump era, combined with ongoing expansion of fiscal spending, has caused the US debt scale to grow rapidly. In the 2025 fiscal year, the US government added approximately $2.17 trillion in new debt, bringing the total debt to about $38 trillion, accounting for 124.3% of GDP, a near four-year high. This structural pressure is weakening the global attractiveness of the US dollar.

As the Federal Reserve's January interest rate decision approaches, market focus is on the upcoming release of the US November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the latest inflation report on Thursday, which is a key reference indicator for assessing the Federal Reserve's policy path in the current macro environment. Due to the previous government shutdown affecting data collection, this CPI report does not include October data and will not provide month-over-month inflation figures for November. Therefore, the market is more focused on the year-over-year changes in the CPI and core CPI to determine whether inflation is re-accelerating. The market generally expects the November CPI year-over-year growth to be around 3.1%, and the core CPI to be approximately 3.0%.

After experiencing sharp fluctuations on Wednesday, Bitcoin prices have gradually stabilized, maintaining around $86,600 with oscillations. According to The Block market data, as of early Thursday Eastern Time, Bitcoin has slightly increased over the past 24 hours, trading at approximately $86,670. Previously, Bitcoin briefly surged above $90,000 but then quickly retreated, indicating that market sentiment remains cautious. Analysts point out that recent Bitcoin price volatility is mainly influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties, including rising global risk aversion, slowing inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, deleveraging in the derivatives market, and increased correlation with US stocks. Nick Ruck, Director of Research at LVRG, stated that the current trend more reflects year-end asset allocation adjustments, and the "Christmas rally" expectations are cooling down.

The competition for the next Federal Reserve Chair is heating up. According to The Wall Street Journal, President Trump plans to interview Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller in the near future to assess his suitability to succeed current Chair Jerome Powell. This move indicates that Trump is accelerating the deployment of Federal Reserve personnel aligned with his "aggressive rate cut" policy stance. Currently, Waller has officially entered the list of candidates for Fed Chair. Previously, Trump had met separately with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, both of whom he publicly identified as top contenders. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that during the interview process, Trump focused on evaluating the candidates' views on monetary policy, especially the pace and magnitude of rate cuts.

The US November Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released today, with market expectations of approximately 50,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate possibly rising to 4.4%-4.5%. The credibility of the data is declining, which may lead the market to focus more on Federal Reserve policy changes rather than specific data, affecting the crypto market and liquidity.

The probability of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair has increased. Warsh supports interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction but calls for regulatory reform, believes inflation stems from Federal Reserve policies, advocates returning to the price stability mandate, and holds a positive view on AI and deregulation.

After the Federal Reserve's expected 25 basis point rate cut, there was a noticeable shift in global capital flows. In addition to the rate cut, the Federal Reserve also announced it will repurchase approximately $40 billion of short-term government bonds (T-bills) each month, further lowering real interest rates and injecting liquidity into the market. From a policy perspective, this combination should be favorable for risk assets, but the market's actual reaction has shown clear divergence. The rate decision was largely in line with expectations, with 3 out of 10 members voting against. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explicitly stated that there is still room for further rate cuts in 2026, after which the policy may enter a period of observation, with a renewed focus on inflation control. Against this backdrop, markets are re-evaluating the future monetary policy path, especially regarding the stance of the new dovish-leaning Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Hasset, whose previous hints that the number of future rate cuts could exceed three have, in the short term, increased market uncertainty.

As President Trump publicly expressed support for Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh's campaigns to become the next Federal Reserve Chair, Hassett stepped forward to emphasize the Fed's independence in monetary policy. This statement came after the Fed's latest round of rate cuts and has drawn close attention from the prediction markets and the cryptocurrency market. According to CBS's "Facing the Nation," Hassett explicitly stated in an interview that the Federal Reserve's decisions will not be influenced by political pressure. He pointed out that the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will make judgments based on data and logic, rather than the president's personal preferences. "The president's views only carry weight when supported by data," Hassett emphasized.

After a phase of sell-off, the cryptocurrency market may enter a key window for stabilization and rebound in the short term. Although the Federal Reserve implemented a rate cut last week, market sentiment remains cautious, with traders closely monitoring macroeconomic data and central bank policy signals, including US CPI inflation data, initial jobless claims, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. On Monday morning, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies slightly declined to approximately $3.13 trillion, a daily decrease of about 1.5%. However, overall trading activity has not significantly decreased, with the 24-hour total trading volume still around $90.9 billion, indicating that funds have not been withdrawn from the market on a large scale. Bitcoin's price hovers around $89,000, down about 1% intraday, while Ethereum shows relative resilience, with a decline of less than 1%. The market structure exhibits characteristics of “converging declines and stable trading volume.” In terms of sentiment indicators, the crypto market fear and greed index dropped to 16, entering the “extreme fear” zone, reflecting that short-term risk appetite remains subdued. However, this level is still better than the extreme emotional stage of last month.