Bitcoin fell 23.8% in the first quarter of 2026, marking its worst performance since 2018. The decline was mainly driven by outflows from spot ETF fund flows and high inflation. Despite the near-term drop, analysts say long-term conviction in Bitcoin has not changed, and it’s important to watch shifts in the macro environment and incoming capital flows.

In the first quarter of 2026, the price of Bitcoin fell 23.8%, marking its worst performance since 2018. Starting the year, the price dropped from $87,508 to $66,619, for a cumulative loss of 41.6%. Analysts believe that the main reasons include macroeconomic uncertainty and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In addition, ETF outflows have further increased pressure. Despite near-term difficulties, long-term confidence remains solid, and institutional participation trends look positive. The market is watching how developments in the Middle East could affect Bitcoin and overall cryptocurrency market sentiment.

Bitcoin Custodian Company Nakamoto sold 284 bitcoins in March 2026, earning approximately $20 million in profit and reducing its holdings to about 5,058 bitcoins. The company also reduced its stake in Metaplanet shares, with losses that were significant. It is expected to record a $166.2 million loss in 2025, with a net loss of $52.2 million. Nakamoto plans to exit its traditional healthcare business and pivot to the crypto space, but it faces near-term pressure; its stock price has fallen significantly and it has already received a delisting warning.

RHB Research analyst Joseph Chai noted that bullish momentum in New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures has increased. The price has broken through the $4,500 resistance level, but it may face heavy selling pressure near the 20-day SMA, which is currently about $4,815.63.

SWIFT, the global financial messaging network, is accelerating the development of blockchain settlement infrastructure and plans to launch its first minimum viable product in 2026. The new system is built on a permissioned network, enabling near-real-time transfers of tokenized deposits and digital currencies through smart contracts. Its core selling point is low integration and upgrade costs. The project has attracted more than 30 major banks and aims to improve the efficiency of cross-border payments, with potentially massive impact.

Goldman Sachs’ report maintains a bullish outlook for gold, expecting the gold price to reach $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by central bank gold purchases and Federal Reserve rate cuts. Despite near-term downside risks, in the long run, the upside potential for gold remains substantial, as geopolitical factors or moves to diversify into more assets could prompt additional allocation.

UBS Wealth Management believes the China market has been overcorrected, and investors may be underestimating the value of high-quality AI stocks. Internet-sector valuations are near their historical lows; MSCI China’s expected EPS growth rate is about 13%, and the tech sector is around 20%-25%. Policy is actively supporting AI and technology innovation, and earnings and valuations are expected to recover.

Bitcoin faces a critical turning point in April 2026. In March, the price rose only slightly by 0.19%, and market momentum has weakened. Technically, it shows a “bear flag” pattern; during tests of the key trendline, it may initiate a new round of downside. Flows are split—ETF net inflows are weakening, and large whales continue to exert selling pressure. The key support level is $67,000; once that breaks, it will test lower levels. If it breaks above $75,900, it could reverse. Overall, Bitcoin still faces near-term pressure, and its April performance will influence subsequent market direction.

Goldman Sachs analysts believe that after approximately a 46% pullback, crypto-related stocks are showing structural opportunities, and they have given “buy” ratings to Robinhood, Figure Technologies, and COIN. Despite valuations being near historical lows, trading volume has not recovered in the near term, which could affect revenue and profit. Market sentiment is cautious, and the outlook will depend on liquidity and Bitcoin performance.

Gate News reports that on March 29, approximately 95% of the components in the Gold Miners ETF (GDX, VanEck Gold Miners ETF) have entered a bear market, the highest proportion since 2023, with a cumulative drop of 25% over the past four weeks. During this round of decline, the strengthening dollar and falling stock market triggered margin calls and forced selling, while the war in Iran has increased mining operational costs. Spot gold prices remain near historical highs, with mining stocks diverging from gold prices.