Monetary Policy

K33 research report states that Bitcoin has recently oscillated within the $60,000 to $75,000 range, with weakening selling pressure in the market, displaying characteristics of establishing a bottom. Long-term holders tend to accumulate coins, which helps stabilize prices, but macroeconomic uncertainty remains, which may impact risk appetite and capital inflows.

European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone said on Tuesday that the ECB expects by this summer to announce the European standards it will use for a potential digital euro, a step aimed at helping payment providers and merchants prepare their systems ahead of any issuance

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission established an innovation working group responsible for regulating cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence, and prediction markets, with the goal of developing clear rules, ensuring market competitiveness, and providing communication channels for innovators. The group collaborates with the SEC and CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee to promote responsible innovation, maintain market order, and boost investor confidence.

The Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Brad Jones, stated that asset tokenization has become a matter of how to implement it, with an estimated annual efficiency boost of approximately $16.7 billion for the economy. The RBA will establish a digital financial market infrastructure sandbox and expand the tokenization working group to promote interoperability across institutions.

Assistant Assistant Governor Brad Jones of the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that the central bank will monitor the implementation of tokenization, emphasizing the complementary nature of stablecoins and bank deposit tokens in the market. Tokenization technology is expected to enhance efficiency for the Australian economy by approximately 24 billion Australian dollars annually. To address market challenges, the central bank will collaborate with regulators and industry participants to establish testing environments and advisory groups.

Goldman Sachs noted that the recent decline in gold prices is consistent with expectations, primarily affected by rising interest rates and market volatility. Despite weakening investor demand, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about gold's prospects, forecasting that prices will reach $5400 by year-end as central banks purchase gold to diversify assets.

Data from the UK Office for National Statistics shows that the Consumer Price Index rose 3% year-over-year in February, with core inflation reaching 3.2%. The market expects inflation to remain elevated due to Middle East conflicts and rising energy prices, which will impact monetary policy. The pound weakened slightly against the dollar, with analysts predicting the Bank of England may maintain high interest rates to counter the "second-round inflation effects."

Recently, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced significant outflows after consecutive seven trading days of net inflows, with net outflows of $163.5 million on the 18th and an additional $51.9 million on the 19th, indicating simultaneous weakening of market capital and prices. Bitcoin prices temporarily broke below $70,000, highlighting that ETF capital flows can no longer support its rebound, while deteriorating macroeconomic conditions have created pressure on risk assets, causing investor preference to noticeably contract. The test of the $70,000 level has become a barometer of short-term market sentiment.

Ripple is testing its stablecoin RLUSD in Singapore's regulatory sandbox to automate cross-border payments, partnering with Unloq to enhance trade finance. This initiative aims to streamline processes by utilizing tokenized bank liabilities, moving beyond traditional manual verification methods.

10x Research analysis indicates that Circle is facing intensified stablecoin economic competition with a certain CEX. Circle's stock price declined due to CLARITY Act uncertainty, but the legislation could bring structural benefits. Circle supports stablecoin regulation in exchange for legitimacy, while the certain CEX prioritizes short-term profitability. Their business models are at odds; under regulation, Circle may forgo high-margin distribution in exchange for sustained "regulatory certainty" and drive institutional adoption and financial integration.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has established an "Innovation Task Force" aimed at integrating regulation of AI, crypto assets, and prediction markets, while coordinating asset classification with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The task force will establish clear regulatory pathways, reduce compliance costs for enterprises, enhance regulatory predictability, and address challenges in the rapidly growing digital financial market.

Military tensions between the United States and Iran are escalating, driving oil prices up to $104 per barrel and bringing inflationary pressures back to the fore. The probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes has surged significantly, with U.S. stocks showing mixed performance, technology stocks under pressure, and energy stocks performing strongly. Bitcoin remains flat at $70,500, as markets reassess future funding costs and cash becomes the preferred choice for investors.

Bitcoin is under pressure near $70,791 as U.S. 5-year Treasury yields rise to a 9-month high, accompanied by inflation concerns triggered by the Iran conflict. Market capital is tilting toward cash holdings, weakening demand for Bitcoin. Analysts predict it may retest the $66,000 support level. With rising probability of rate hikes, market speculative demand for Bitcoin is diminishing, and overall risk assets are also facing pressure.

Delaware State legislators have proposed the Delaware Payment Stablecoin Act (SB19), which aims to establish a state-level regulatory framework for stablecoin issuance. The legislation requires issuers to obtain licenses, maintain 1:1 reserve ratios, and conduct regular information disclosures. The bill works in coordination with federal regulations, positioning stablecoins as payment instruments to attract digital asset projects to the state, potentially making Delaware a significant registration hub.

Citigroup has lowered its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, signaling a shift toward caution on the cryptocurrency market's medium-term outlook, primarily due to slow progress in U.S. crypto asset legislation. Bitcoin's target was reduced from $143,000 to $112,000, while Ethereum's fell to $3,175. Despite upside potential remaining in the future, the lack of new policy catalysts suggests prices may oscillate within a range in the near term. Citigroup's assessment of Ethereum is more cautious, as it believes the asset is more significantly impacted by on-chain activity.

On March 25, Federal Reserve Governor Barr indicated that interest rates may need to remain stable to address inflation above the 2% target. He supported last week's decision to hold rates steady, stating that the Middle East situation and rising oil prices have increased economic uncertainty and heightened inflation risks.

Gate News Report: On March 25, CME "FedWatch" data showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 9.3%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 90.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively raising rates by 25 basis points through June is 17.1%, with a probability of 80.2% for maintaining rates unchanged.

Jinse Finance reported that on March 25, according to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 9.3%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 90.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively raising interest rates by 25 basis points by June is 17.1%, with an 80.2% chance of rates remaining unchanged.

Gate News reported on March 24 that, according to the Washington Post, court records show that a senior deputy of U.S. Department of Justice official Jennie Pirro admitted during a closed-door hearing this month that the Department of Justice does not have evidence of misconduct in its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding renovation costs of the Federal Reserve building.

BNY Mellon Chief Executive Robin Vince noted that the future adoption of cryptocurrency will depend on large traditional financial institutions, expressing opposition to claims that DeFi will replace banks. He emphasized that large banks' customer bases and infrastructure are key to driving tokenization, and called for clear regulations to promote digital asset adoption. This financial transformation is expected to take 5 to 15 years and will require collaborative efforts from all parties.