Prediction Market

Polymarket predictions show a 45% probability that the 10-year US Treasury yield will touch 3.7% before 2027, with a 74% probability for 3.9%. During early Asian trading on Wednesday, US Treasury yields declined slightly, with the 10-year yield at 4.34%.

In the upcoming NBA regular season prediction event between the Celtics and the Thunder, an account wagered nearly $30,000 on a Celtics victory, with the current quote at 42.5¢ and total trading volume reaching $519,000. The Celtics are ranked 2nd in the East, while the Thunder are ranked 1st in the West.

On March 25, a prediction platform showed that a new address invested $48,000 betting that Trump will not visit China before May, with the "No" option currently at 62% probability. Trump's originally scheduled visit to China at the end of March has been postponed, with the new itinerary expected between April 21-28, as the White House and the Chinese Embassy in the US continue to negotiate relevant matters.

Kalshi Launches "Report Insider Trading" Button to Strengthen Compliance and Regulation, Allowing Users to Report Potential Violations. Meanwhile, the platform restricts political candidates and athletes from participating in related markets, aimed at preventing conflicts of interest. This initiative comes amid regulatory pressure from lawmakers and reflects the platform's commitment to transparency and integrity in prediction markets.

Enlivex announced raising $21 million through a debt financing agreement with The Lind Partners to purchase 3 billion RAIN tokens at a 62% discount. The company plans to continue accumulating tokens through the end of 2027 while launching a $20 million stock repurchase program, seeking to balance crypto reserves and shareholder returns. The RAIN platform has performed well in prediction markets, attracting investor attention.

Prediction markets are exciting, but they’re not reliable wealth builders for retail users. Research by Citizens shows that retail prediction market users are losing more money than legal sports bettors, with the sharpest traders and market makers capturing returns on the other side of their

On Polymarket, 5 accounts have collectively invested $65,400 betting that the U.S. military may enter Iran before May, with the current probability at 51%. Trump has proposed a ceasefire plan, and the market is pricing in modest expectations of U.S.-Iran tensions easing. The Pentagon has deployed approximately 2,000 paratroopers to the Middle East to strengthen U.S. military presence in the region.

On March 25th, gold prices rebounded sharply, causing the probabilities of related events on Polymarket to decline significantly. The probability of "falling below $4,300 by the end of March" dropped to 16%, while the probability of "falling below $4,000" dropped to 4%. Spot gold price stood at $4,570.41, up 2.15%.

According to Gate News, on March 25th, five accounts on the prediction market Polymarket collectively invested $65,400 betting on whether the U.S. military will enter Iran before May, with the current probability at 51%. Trump is seeking a ceasefire with Iran, and the market has reacted strongly to this. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has dispatched approximately 2,000 paratroopers to the Middle East.

The United States is pushing for a ceasefire agreement with Iran, but Iranian media denies there are negotiations. These contradictory messages triggered market volatility, with stocks briefly rising, oil prices falling, and Bitcoin rebounding. Analysts point out that Iran's refusal of peace talks helps maintain its influence, market expectations of easing tensions or continued tensions will directly impact Bitcoin's price, and the future direction of the situation still requires monitoring of subsequent diplomatic developments.

Enlivex raised $21 million through a loan to expand its crypto asset strategy, focusing on the RAIN token. The company purchased 3 billion RAIN at a 62% discount and approved a $20 million stock buyback program. RAIN saw a slight increase following the news.

Backpack official on 3/25 revealed that external traders manipulated the BP price upward through the spot market to profit from bets on "BP FDV exceeding $200 million" on Polymarket. The investigation confirmed the operators were not insiders. The official emphasized zero tolerance for market manipulation, while Polymarket updated rules to prohibit related manipulation. The BP token declined over 25% since its 3/23 TGE.

The U.S. Senate voted to confirm Marin as Secretary of Homeland Security, calling for swift passage of a budget bill to restart the department. The Department of Homeland Security currently faces a shutdown, with related event probabilities fluctuating. Marin supports Trump's immigration policies and has pledged to reduce media attention.

Backpack officially stated that a certain trader holds large open positions on Polymarket, believing that the BP token's FDV will exceed $200 million one day after TGE, and attempted to push the price above $0.2. After investigation, these traders are unrelated to Backpack, and the company maintains zero tolerance for insider trading.

A certain CEX reported that traders hold large open positions on Polymarket, with expectations that BP's FDV will exceed $200 million after TGE, driving up BP's price. The CEX's investigation confirmed that these traders are unrelated to them, and they maintain a zero-tolerance stance toward insider trading.

U.S. senators are proposing legislation to comprehensively ban sports events and casino game contracts on CFTC-regulated prediction markets, targeting Kalshi and Polymarket. The dispute centers on federal versus state jurisdiction. Despite facing regulatory pressure, prediction markets remain favored by capital, with MLB choosing to partner with Polymarket to strengthen oversight.