2025.11.14

Today's panic index is 16, the funding rate is positive, the proportion of long positions in contracts is 63%, the daily K-line has broken through a strong support level, and the weekly line is also in a broken state. The market has not shown a rapid rebound, coupled with a three consecutive bearish candlestick pattern, filling the market with fear, a very familiar scene.

All indicators suggest that Bitcoin is likely to continue its downward trend, and the next few days will be the most grueling. The K-line trend has entered a very narrow downward fluctuation zone, and it's hard to say whether a trend reversal will happen. At this moment, any technical analysis seems futile. I am currently fixated on one piece of data: the change in the holding ratio of the top 100 holders of various cryptocurrencies. Currently, Ethereum's inflow exceeds outflow by nearly 500,000 coins, while Bitcoin's inflow exceeds outflow by 2,000 coins. Although the possibility of further declines cannot be ruled out, there will eventually be a moment of halt. The most concerning scenario is a long wick in both directions, and yet that is also the scenario most people desire. Human emotions are indeed contradictory.