#美联储降息 Yesterday's interest rate decision was basically in line with expectations, with no new surprises. The main focus is on the dot plot — that's what can truly influence the market moving forward.

From the chart, the median interest rate for 2026 is estimated at 3.125%. Currently at 3.75%, which leaves about 50 basis points of potential downward room; in other words, there could be two rate cuts next year.

But here's the interesting part. The committee is somewhat divided internally — four members support more aggressive cuts of 125, 100, 75, and 75 basis points respectively. These four are clearly dovish members, their views aligning perfectly with the new government's emphasis on growth.

Currently, the market's expectations for interest rate movements next year are not very intense. The real divergence in expectations might only appear once the Federal Reserve chairperson candidate is finalized. The new chair is expected to be announced within a month before or after Christmas. This is crucial — because one of these four dovish members is very likely to be appointed. If he becomes the chair, the entire tone of monetary policy will be fundamentally rewritten.

So, the key thing to watch next is the personnel appointment. The performance of assets like $BTC and $ETH could react quite noticeably at that time.