Market Outlook

A Slightly Different Technical Analysis

Given that the market is essentially flat, there isn’t much new to report based on the original analysis. Therefore, I have drawn a new chart to illustrate this.

This is BTCUSDT.P, not BTCUSDT, so there are no past traces. The timeframe used is 6H.

As seen, after the main decline, BTC has formed a “rising channel” / “bear flag.”

Meanwhile, the major descending trendline is very close. Currently, it appears to be a large-scale downward trend transitioning into sideways / bear flag, with the potential to challenge the downtrend again.

If it can touch the upper edge within the “bear flag,” the resistance at the current price is around 96000.

If it declines within the bear flag, the support is approximately at 88500.

If it breaks below the bear flag, a deeper decline could follow.

The diagonal trendline (since 126000) is about to be challenged.

If the diagonal trendline confirms a breakout, the rebound level will expand and test the bull market support band area, i.e., above 103.

Some of the indicators I am currently using are not my usual ones; switching perspectives might reveal new insights.

Support/resistance within the small-scale bear flag is at 96000/88500.
The bear flag itself is a bearish pattern, indicating that a breakdown could trigger a deeper decline.
Breaking through the diagonal trendline could lead to a bullish move above 103.
If there is a false breakout of the diagonal trendline followed by continued decline and a breakdown of the bear flag, it could trigger a deeper fall.

Personal Trading Considerations:

The downward trendline cannot extend forever (otherwise Bitcoin could theoretically fall to negative numbers). The key is when to break the downward trendline—this is the moment to expand the rebound level.
Before breaking the downward trendline, it’s premature to assume a breakout.
Using the upper and lower boundaries of the small-scale bear flag for swing trading is reasonable.
A confirmed breakdown of the bear flag warrants caution for a deeper decline.

This article is sponsored by #BCGAME｜@bcgame @bcgamecoin