Market Outlook
A Slightly Different Technical Analysis
Given that the market is essentially flat, there isn’t much new to report based on the original analysis. Therefore, I have drawn a new chart to illustrate this.
This is BTCUSDT.P, not BTCUSDT, so there are no past traces. The timeframe used is 6H.
As seen, after the main decline, BTC has formed a “rising channel” / “bear flag.”
Meanwhile, the major descending trendline is very close. Currently, it appears to be a large-scale downward trend transitioning into sideways / bear flag, with the potential to challenge the downtrend again.
If it

Market Outlook
Summary of Yesterday's FOMC and Its Impact on the Market
Yesterday, the meeting was almost ongoing from the US stock market open until just after 11 AM China time, so the FOMC was only observed through ongoing discussions on Jin10 and group chats with family. I didn't have time to watch it live. Before the meeting, I analyzed institutional expectations for the dot plot, which were generally around 1 rate cut. The announced outcome was also a single rate cut, matching expectations.
We previously predicted that if one rate cut was expected, the market might fluctuate between 84-94

Market Viewpoints
96500: Will There Be a Collapse Midway?
After a long wait, we’ve finally reached the moment of “one big bullish candle, with thousands of troops rushing in to meet it.”
Bitcoin has returned to the 94000 range and has also broken through the high from December 4th.
We are now very close to the range we are “still expecting”—in fact, we’re closer to 96500 than to 87000. This means that the earlier expectation of a pullback to 87000 on Monday is now highly unlikely.
I believe it’s very reasonable to expect a continued move up above 96500 next.
At present, I don’t see any likelih

this position is still running

Market Viewpoints
91500 reached, dropped, then went back up
Yesterday when it was at 89, I posted a short-term bullish view
Then it dropped to 87700 (0.382), which made a lot of people panic
But I was in a meeting and didn’t see it
By the time I came back, the price had returned to 89000, but many people had already sold at the 87700 bottom
Then the price rose to around 91500. I closed my short-term long positions around here, which was the price level I expected
After that, the price dropped again to 89000 (a lot of people were already exhausted)
If I had been awake, I probably would have gon

The family member’s question is very good, and I’d like to offer some humble opinions.
The wealthier you are, the more taxes you pay — this is the principle behind the tax system in any country.
Wealthy people want to pay less tax — anyone who is making money will have this idea.
The two sides are in a “dynamic game.” (Teacher Qiang has etched this phrase deeply in my mind — you win.)
I encourage family members to consider taxes not just from the “grand narrative” perspective, interpreting it as the state unilaterally auctioning off individuals, even though our education has conditioned us to

Many coins have already fully entered the bear market mode since June 2022.
For example, this $APT
might end up revisiting the October 11 bottom, and only when the weekly chart flattens out will it be considered the bottom.
Previously, I thought 3u was the bottom, which was indeed my oversight.
This project team is ruthless.
By the second half of 2026, this coin might rise 4-5 times from the bottom, but the price might still not return to 3u. (If it goes from 0.7 to 2.8, isn't that 4 times?)

Question: Exactly how many hands are there? I can't really keep count anymore.

Market Outlook
Still in the pre-FOMC rally window, minor pullbacks possible
Today's market hasn't changed much compared to yesterday
Bitcoin has yet to start a pullback, rising from 83,800 all the way to the 93,000 range and consolidating
A pullback may occur in the next 1-2 days
If a pullback does occur, the expected level is around the Monday high of 90,600, which is the most likely level to be tested
If this level is broken, the next support is around 87,000, but I think the probability of a retracement to this level is relatively low
After the pullback ends, the target range before the 9th

In the ideal scenario, the next target is 172

Market Insights
Small-scale movements
In last night's market outlook, after breaking through 88, I mentioned that the next target would be 91200.
After 91200 was broken, I thought it would slowly rise to 93, which has now been achieved, and has touched the yearly open.
Next, let's analyze the specific small-scale movements in detail.
On Monday, there was a small-scale driven drop from the opening at 90360 down to a low of 83800. On Tuesday, this was fully recovered. Currently, Monday's high and Monday's opening price (monday open) at 90360 coincide.
Monday mid is around 87000, which is also a

Market View
The assumption of a rally into FOMC
Last night, after the lowest retracement to the second potential pullback level of around 84500 that I posted in my TG channel (lowest 83800), there was no further decline.
After rebounding to the 87 range, I believe the upper resistance is around 88. If it breaks through here, it can continue to rise; if 88 is blocked, it will pull back to the 81700 range.
Currently, it has broken through the 88000 level in a small-scale driving form.
After breaking through 88, I believe the next resistance is in the 91200 range, and we are currently very close