#美联储降息 The Bank of Japan Rate Hike Countdown: This Time Really Is Different

Tomorrow, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. Everyone is waiting for this historic moment—the first rate hike in nearly 20 years, signaling the end of the negative interest rate era.

But the focus this time isn't really on whether they will raise rates or not, but on what happens afterward. Industry insiders generally believe this is just the beginning, and the pace of future rate hikes by the BOJ still has many uncertainties.

What are the two most critical variables? One is whether domestic wages can continue to grow and whether a virtuous cycle of "wage increases → stable prices → strong consumption" can be established. The other is external pressure, especially the direction of trade policies in the US—if tariffs and trade barriers are escalated, Japan's exports and economy could come under pressure.

From the expectations, the BOJ may initiate a gradual rate hike cycle lasting several years. Before 2027, there could be up to three more rate hikes, ultimately bringing the policy rate to around 1.5% as a neutral level.

What does this mean for the crypto market? Simply put, it is one of the signals indicating a gradual tightening of global central bank policies. $BTC $ETH and similar assets will face a more complex liquidity environment in the future—on one hand, yen appreciation may attract capital inflows; on the other hand, the fading of easing expectations will also impact the pricing of risk assets. The market is likely to remain cautious and watchful, at least until clearer policy signals emerge.