New Possible Script

First of all, the fact that it has never fallen below 84 means there is always the possibility of a rebound. Currently, the market has further rebounded to around 89.

I think we might see a slight increase during Christmas (from the 24th to the 26th) without breaking through 94.

But this rebound may not be the timing of a mid-bear market rebound.

likely more chop before counter-trend rally

Therefore, it may first test the 84-80 range after Christmas, or slightly drop below 80500 and then rebound in the mid-term of the bear market.

Compared to 2022:
The peak was reached on November 10, 2021, the bottom was first touched on January 24, and the rebound peak was on March 28. It took about 2 months and 15 days to reach the bottom, and about 2 months for the rebound.

The decline from October 6 to November 21 lasted 1 month and 15 days, which may be a bit too short.

However, if we compare it to the script from the second half of 2019, it is also possible that the timeframe will be correspondingly shortened.

Therefore, 80500 is the bottom of the first wave of decline, or it is reasonable to slightly drop below 80500 (that is, to hit a low point again at the end of December or the beginning of January) (the former aligns with the timeline of the 2019 second half script, while the latter corresponds to the 2022 script).

However, the mid-bear market rebound should start in January and may last until early February. Here I believe it is possible that it peaks after the FOMC, rather than before the FOMC (this is also a point of script modification).

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