The current trend is like "a deep breath before a surge." As long as the 3180-3200 zone can hold support, this pullback is just to set up for a better upward move. The current price hovers around 3215, and it is recommended to "look more, move less," observing whether a long lower shadow appears on the 4-hour K-line.

There are two possible forecasts for the upcoming trend:

First possibility: Rebound after retesting support and then pushing higher (probability 60%)
Price finds support in the 3180-3200 range (an important support zone on the 4-hour level). After 8-12 hours of sideways consolidation, exhausting the MACD energy on the 1-hour level, it may attempt to break through again toward the target zone of 3300-3350.

Second possibility: Deep correction and repair (probability 40%)
If Bitcoin's decline causes Ethereum to fall below 3180, the market may enter a deep correction phase, with price retesting the previous breakout point around 3120-3150. In this case, consolidation could extend to 2-3 days.

Key indicator analysis:

- Ultra-short term (15 min / 1 hour): Bears are currently dominant, looking for a bottom. At these levels, the price has broken below all moving averages (MA5, 10, 21), showing a downward dispersing trend.
- MACD: In a dead cross below the zero line with increasing volume, indicating short-term selling pressure persists.
- WR indicator: In the oversold zone below -80, suggesting a short-term rebound may occur, but this rebound is more of a "technical retracement" rather than an immediate reversal.

Mid-term (4 hours): Critical moment (support test)
The 4-hour chart is the core for judgment, with the price exactly at the MA21 (around 3199-3200). In an uptrend, MA21 is the "lifeline." If it breaks down with volume, the rally from around 2900 may be over.

KDJ indicator: Forms a dead cross at high levels and quickly moves downward, indicating the price still has the inertia to seek support at the bottom.

Long-term (daily): Bullish structure intact, signs of shakeout evident
The daily chart remains strong, with the MACD golden cross and increasing red bars. The decline from 3307 to around 3210 on the daily chart appears as a long upper shadow candle, a normal correction after a rally, aimed at clearing profit-taking and leveraged positions near 3000.

Entry plan:
❤️ Long position:
Currently, Ethereum is precisely on the MA21 (about 3199.55) on the 4-hour chart, which is a critical support line. For a strong upward trend, retesting this moving average is often a high-probability short-term trading point.
• Entry zone (long): 3200 - 3210
• Reason: This is the support level of the 4-hour moving average and a psychological round number.
• Small stop-loss: 3175
• Reason: The previous low on the 15-minute and 1-hour charts is around 3182. Setting the stop-loss at 3175 can effectively avoid being triggered by "pinning" traps targeting the previous low. If broken, it indicates the upward momentum on the 4-hour level has deteriorated, and it’s time to exit.
• Risk control: The stop-loss space is about 30-35 points (roughly 1%), a standard small stop-loss.
• Take profit targets:
• First target: 3260 - 3280 (recovers the recent decline and acts as the 1-hour moving average resistance).
• Second target: 3300 - 3310 (previous high, with potential for higher if broken).

Market volatility analysis:
If 3180 is broken with volume (closing below the candle body), it is recommended to immediately stop long positions, as the next strong support is around 3120-3140, with a gap in between.

❤️ Short position:
Option 1: Left-side trading (resisting rebound)
Suitable when the price retests resistance and upward momentum weakens.
• Entry zone: 3255 - 3275
• Reason: The 1-hour moving average resistance is in this range. If the price rebounds here but the 15-minute MACD shows divergence, the rebound may be ending.
• Small stop-loss: 3315
• Reason: The recent high is around 3307. If the price breaks and stabilizes above 3315, it indicates a strong bullish return, and short positions should be stopped.
• Target: First target 3180, second target 3120.

Option 2: Right-side trading (support break and trend reversal)
Suitable when support is broken and the trend turns bearish.
• Entry zone: 3175 - 3185 (breakout short)
• Reason: The 4-hour MA21 support is around 3200, and the previous pin low was at 3182. If the candle body closes below 3180, it indicates the short-term uptrend is broken, and downside space opens.
• Small stop-loss: 3225
• Reason: Returning above 3220 suggests the breakout was a "false breakout," and it’s better to exit and wait.
• Target: 3120 - 3100, round numbers.

Since the 4-hour MACD has not yet fully deteriorated, it is advised to observe the support at 3200 first.
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