#美联储降息 Influenced by strong US employment data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January has soared to 88.4%, and market expectations for rate cuts and liquidity easing have significantly cooled down. This macroeconomic backdrop directly suppresses the upward momentum of the crypto market, leading to increased short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin. As signs of exhaustion appear in capital inflow momentum, the market generally expects prices to enter a sideways consolidation phase in the coming months, with overall investor sentiment turning cautious, and the decline in the greed index reflecting that the market has bid farewell to its previous blind optimism.

Bitcoin is currently trading within a range of 85,000 to 94,000. In the short term, 90,000 is seen as a key support level. If this level is broken, the price is very likely to fall back to the 88,000 range or even lower, continuing the sideways downward trend. Although the futures market is active, there is a significant divergence between bulls and bears, and no clear one-sided trend signals are present. Until a volume breakout above the upper resistance is achieved, it will be difficult for the market to reach new all-time highs, and swing trading remains the mainstream trading logic.

Although some exchanges' inventory balances have decreased, indicating some signs of chip accumulation, the overall pace of buying power recovery is insufficient to support a rapid rebound. Currently, the market faces setbacks when rebounding to key resistance levels. While downward momentum is gradually weakening, the lack of external strong positive catalysts makes it difficult to break upward in the short term. This stalemate state causes the market to wait for new developments, with short-term partial rebounds often accompanied by profit-taking and subsequent pullbacks.

Right now, Bitcoin is like a tired runner taking a break. Without liquidity injections from the Federal Reserve, there aren't enough "hot money" in the market to push prices higher, and everyone is just watching each other, waiting to see who will give in first. The current situation is a tug-of-war around the $90,000 mark, like stretching a rubber band—unable to push upward, but supported from below. At this point, don’t expect to suddenly fly to the sky, nor should you panic and think a collapse is imminent. The safest approach is to treat it like a big box, try to squat at the support levels at the bottom, and quickly retreat at resistance levels at the top—don’t fight the trend. Wait until the market clearly chooses a direction before jumping in again.