#我的2026第一条帖 The market today is completely dominated by two main messages: one is the upcoming economic data, and the other is the long-term policy expectations that could change the game.

1. Tonight’s Focus: December Non-Farm Payrolls — The ultimate test of rate cut expectations. Tonight, Beijing time, the US will release the December non-farm employment data, which will serve as a “weather vane” for the Federal Reserve’s policy inclination in the first quarter. Market expectations: Currently, mainstream forecasts estimate an increase of about 55,000 to 70,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.6% or slightly rising. This data will verify whether the US labor market is experiencing a “mild cooling” or an “accelerated weakening.”
Possible scenarios and market reactions:
● Strong data, exceeding 75,000: Will seriously undermine market expectations of an early and aggressive rate cut by the Fed, with the “higher interest rates lasting longer” trading logic regaining dominance, potentially causing risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) to come under collective pressure, and Bitcoin may test or even fall below $90,000.
● Data in line with or slightly below expectations: The market may interpret this as “bad news is good news,” meaning the economic slowdown is sufficient to prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts, but not enough to trigger recession fears. This could help crypto markets rebound from oversold levels.
● Far below expectations: Although it will strengthen rate cut expectations, it may first trigger deep concerns about economic recession, leading to “safe-haven” sentiment overwhelming “easing” benefits, causing short-term sharp asset price volatility.
2. Institutional Perspective: End of the De-risking Phase? Amid cautiousness, leading institutions are beginning to send subtle signals. JPMorgan’s latest report indicates that the previous ongoing “de-risking” process in the crypto market may be nearing its end, with initial signs of stabilization in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF fund flows. This provides a theoretical support for the market to potentially find a bottom after data shocks.
3. Potential Bombshell: Trump’s “Million Bitcoin National Reserve” plan, a message from high-level policymakers, has sparked endless speculation. A US senator revealed that President Trump supports a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” plan, considering purchasing up to 1 million bitcoins for the country over the next five years. If any substantial progress is made on this plan, the long-term demand expectations and symbolic significance it brings will far surpass any short-term economic data impact, constituting a disruptive long-term bullish factor. Although currently just a rumor, it hangs like the “Sword of Damocles” over the market, reminding us of the deep integration between crypto markets and policy narratives.
4. Market Outlook: After the data is released, volatility will determine the direction. Before and after tonight’s data release, market volatility will sharply increase, possibly resulting in extreme “pinning” movements.
● Bitcoin: Focus on the support at $90,700 and resistance at $92,000. After the data release, any unilateral trend will require strong volume confirmation to be considered valid.
● Ethereum: $3,050 is the critical line. Be alert that in market turbulence, high-beta Ethereum may experience larger fluctuations than Bitcoin. In the short term (next week), the focus will shift back to technical recovery, whether ETF fund flows can turn positive, and whether the “National Reserve Bitcoin” narrative will continue to ferment. It is expected that the market will take about a week to digest and confirm new macro expectations, and build the next trend based on this.