#比特币技术面分析 On-chain data has already signaled it. BTC has fallen below the 365-day moving average, and this is not just a minor technical fluctuation—historically, this level often marks the boundary between bull and bear markets.

More critically, demand-side deterioration is underway. US spot ETF holdings turned into net sellers in Q4, decreasing by 24,000 BTC, which contrasts sharply with the strong accumulation seen at the same period last year. The growth rate of addresses holding 100-1000 BTC has also fallen below trend; these addresses mainly represent institutional allocations, whose behavior often leads the market by half a step.

Looking back at this cycle, the three main demand waves—approval of spot ETFs, the presidential election, and the corporate treasury bubble—have already been digested sequentially. Since early October, the growth of new demand has fallen below long-term levels, indicating that the previous incremental driving force has been largely exhausted.

The current issue is not the price itself, but the support factors are disappearing. Without new demand waves to fill the gap, it will be difficult for the price to find new support levels. The operational logic at this stage needs adjustment—from tracking demand to observing bottom confirmation.