#我的2026第一条帖

#我的2026第一条帖
As 2026 gains momentum, Bitcoin and Ethereum have entered a phase where macro digestion outweighs momentum chasing. On January 10, price action reflected a textbook transition from directional expansion into range-based oscillation, with volatility increasing but follow-through remaining limited.
Following the release of U.S. December Non-Farm Payroll data, market volatility increased significantly. Bitcoin briefly pushed higher from the 89,800 area to near 92,000 before facing rejection and settling back around 90,500. Ethereum followed a similar path, rebounding from the 3,050 region toward 3,140, only to pull back into a narrow consolidation zone near 3,080. These reactions further validate 91,500–92,000 (BTC) and 3,140–3,150 (ETH) as short-term resistance levels. While downside support at 89,000–89,500 (BTC) and 3,050–3,080 (ETH) remains intact for now, the absence of new macro catalysts has left the market trapped in a sideways structure.
On-chain indicators reinforce this mixed picture. Ethereum whales continue to accumulate during pullbacks, yet overall network activity has softened, and the Fear & Greed Index has moved from optimistic territory back toward neutrality. Bitcoin whale behavior remains divided some addresses are accumulating, while others are transferring assets to exchanges, signaling a lack of unified conviction among large holders.
From a macro perspective, the December U.S. labor report delivered conflicting signals. Job creation came in below expectations, while unemployment declined to 4.4% and wage growth exceeded forecasts. This combination has reduced near-term expectations for monetary easing, with January rate cuts now fully priced out and major institutions pushing expectations for the first cut toward mid-year. As a result, uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory continues to weigh on risk assets.
$BTC ‌$ETH ‌