Geopolitical tensions often become the convenient pretext for massive fiscal expansion. If we see sovereign debt climb toward $50 trillion, the policy responses could get extreme—think aggressive rate cuts to service the debt burden. But here's the catch: slashing rates in an inflationary environment creates a vicious cycle. You're trying to stimulate an already-strained economy while currency depreciation accelerates. The math doesn't work. This backdrop matters hugely for markets, especially when inflation erodes purchasing power and central banks face impossible trade-offs between supporting growth and maintaining currency stability.
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Geopolitical tensions often become the convenient pretext for massive fiscal expansion. If we see sovereign debt climb toward $50 trillion, the policy responses could get extreme—think aggressive rate cuts to service the debt burden. But here's the catch: slashing rates in an inflationary environment creates a vicious cycle. You're trying to stimulate an already-strained economy while currency depreciation accelerates. The math doesn't work. This backdrop matters hugely for markets, especially when inflation erodes purchasing power and central banks face impossible trade-offs between supporting growth and maintaining currency stability.