#美联储降息 Seeing the latest dot plot from the Federal Reserve, my mind once again drifts back to the recurring scenes of those years. The interest rate cut path in 2026, with officials almost evenly split on zero, one, or two cuts—such divergence, honestly, is not uncommon in the historical cycles I've seen, but each time it signals that the market is about to undergo a baptism.

Remember that round in 2021? The Fed said "inflation is temporary," but a year later, it turned around and started a aggressive rate hike cycle. This time is different; we have already experienced three rate cuts, and rates are still at 2018 highs, while disagreements among officials are intensifying. According to CME data, the probability of a rate cut in January was only 20%, rising to 45% by March. This jump itself tells a story—markets are guessing, repeatedly trial and error, waiting for clearer signals.

Key variables are stacked high: employment data, the possibility of inflation rebound, Powell’s transition in May. History shows that when a central bank chair changes amid policy disagreements, it’s often the riskiest moment for risk assets to be misjudged. If rate hikes pause in 2026 and liquidity becomes limited, the resilience of the crypto market may not be enough. But conversely, if employment weakens and inflation remains controllable, with 1 to 2 rate cuts paving the way, that could be a good time to accumulate chips.

The timeline is very important. This isn’t simply about being bullish or bearish, but about finding your own certainty amid divergence.