A recent survey conducted by Deutsche Bank shows that the majority of investors are betting on a near end to the conflict in the Middle East.

The figures indicate that 54% expect a ceasefire announcement between the United States and Iran by the end of April, while this percentage rises to 76% by May 2026.

In contrast, a small group (about 16%) believe that the confrontation could extend into the second half of the year or beyond.

This disparity reflects the market's desire to return to stability, with current risk pricing based on a "short crisis" scenario that does not lead to long-term disruptions in energy supplies or global supply chains.
-
The lesson here is that capital movements always precede headlines; smart investors monitor these expectations to understand how major portfolios are preparing for the next phase.

Today’s bet is not only on politics but also on the global economy’s ability to withstand uncertainty pressures for a longer period.

Between the optimism of the majority and the pessimism of the minority, where do you personally place your bet on regional stability?

$XAUUSD $XAUUSD200