Gate News update. April 14, the probability on Polymarket that “Israel will strike Yemen before April 30” fell to 14%, down 32% within 24 hours. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio will hold talks today in Washington between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors. The talks come amid an ongoing standoff between the two sides, focusing on the likelihood of a ceasefire, the disarmament of Hezbollah, and a long-term peace agreement. It is understood that after President Trump pressured to de-escalate the conflict, Netanyahu agreed to move forward with negotiations, and the U.S. has asked Israel to pause some military operations. With diplomatic efforts underway, market expectations that Israel would open a new front in Yemen cooled significantly.
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