DropToZeroDon'tCry

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The Ice and Fire of #以太坊
A few days ago, I saw a set of data in the crypto media:
Ethereum’s smart contract deployment in Q4 2024 hit a record high,
and the number of transactions also broke records.
At first glance, it’s easy to draw a conclusion:
$ETH ETH is about to enter a bull run.
It even reminds people of the narrative repeatedly mentioned by #TomLee and #易理华 about the 2026 bull market—
as if everything is aligning.
But the question is:
Has the on-chain activity really returned to a bull market state?
So I systematically reviewed Ethereum’s core on-chain indicators, and the conclus
ETH-3,37%
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In the next 10 years, what is truly valuable as a money-making ability?
In the past couple of years, I’ve become increasingly certain of one thing:
In the next five to ten years, the most valuable assets won’t be in your name, but in yourself.
Housing, stocks, positions—they seem like assets,
but they have one common point—
they can be wiped out at any time by policies, cycles, or accidents.
And some things, once cultivated,
even if the world restarts,
they will stay with you.
The changes I’ve observed over these years are broken down into a hierarchy with extremely important sequencing.
1️⃣ F
BTC-2,07%
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Why am I no longer fully committed to #比特币 this year, and have started shifting towards Ethereum, even altcoins?
First, the conclusion:
The capital environment this year no longer belongs solely to BTC.
I adjusted my positions based on two key observations, both of which are very critical.
First, the amount of ETH unstaking has already dropped to zero.
This is not an emotional indicator; it’s a structural change.
What does zero unstaking mean?
Disappearance of selling pressure
Long-term capital lock-up completed
ETH re-enters a “supply tight” state
When an asset:
Has no new sell orders
And st
BTC-2,07%
ETH-3,37%
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Polymarket turns $400 trillion worth of real estate into a coffee cup betting game
#Polymarket This company really can't stop.
In 2024, it made a name for itself by betting on the US presidential election, with record-breaking trading volume on the night Trump won;
In November 2025, it signed with UFC, officially entering sports betting;
On January 5, 2026, they announced a new玩法:
👉 Bet on housing prices.
Not betting on interest rates, not betting on the Federal Reserve, nor on policy turning points.
But the most straightforward kind—
Miami, next month, will housing prices go up or down?
Th
PRCL-11,53%
SOL-1,67%
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lllltung_tm_9358llllvip:
good
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For Trump, the most important moment may be this Friday.
After Trump’s inauguration, the real test of power pressure is coming.
This Friday (23:00 Beijing time), the U.S. Supreme Court will reach a seemingly procedural but actually extremely critical milestone——
Conference Day.
This is the first time the Supreme Court has directly addressed the legality of Trump’s “global tariffs” at the procedural level,
and it could even become—
the starting point for the Supreme Court to make a substantive judgment on Trump’s global tariff policy.
① The market is already betting: the outcome is not optimist
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The Biggest Lie of 2025: Your Assets "Have Increased"
If you think you've made money in 2025,
then you might have just been comforted by inflation.
After reading Ray Dalio's 10,000-word article "2025 Year-End Reflection," I only remember one sentence:
Most people haven't earned less, but have "not earned anything at all."
① You think it's a bull market, but actually it's currency collapsing
Dalio provided an extremely harsh data point:
S&P 500:
Measured in USD: +18%
Measured in gold: -28%
What does that mean?
When your unit of measurement itself is depreciating,
asset appreciation is just a re
BTC-2,07%
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2025 Year #DeFi Panorama Review: The Retreat of Frenzy and the Formation of Structure
In 2025, DeFi experienced a classic rollercoaster market cycle of **“peak frenzy → Q4 flash crash → calm reversion”**.
The total value locked (TVL) reached a historic high of 277.6 billion USD at one point, then rapidly declined in Q4 to 189.3 billion USD, with an annual increase of only 3.86%.
Prices fluctuated while the structural consolidation accelerated.
1️⃣ Market Pattern: Winner Takes All, Top Players Stronger
The top 14 protocols account for over 75% of TVL, further deepening monopolization.
Meanwhil
AAVE-2,79%
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“Smart Money” is moving again? Israel may soon strike Iran
An hour ago, a mysterious account that previously predicted the pace of the Israel-Iran conflict struck again—
Recharged nearly $40,000, betting on “Israel will strike Iran within this month.”
Current market probability: 20%.
Why is the market watching this account?
Review its historical actions:
#Polymarket
June 10, 2025: Registered and deposited funds, heavily betting on “Israel will strike Iran”
3 days later, Israel launched a large-scale airstrike
→ The account made a profit of nearly $130,000
One week before the ceasefire agreem
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Looking back at the last cycle that truly changed the productivity structure—
👉 Nasdaq from 1996 to 2003 (blue line),
In the last 6 months before the bubble peaked, the index surged by 100%.
Note:
This is not the starting point of the bubble,
but the stage where the bubble proved itself.
And now the Nasdaq (white line),
is following a path that is extremely familiar:
In terms of trend: it has entered the overlapping zone of 1998–2000
In terms of narrative: it is also built on a genuine productivity revolution
In terms of sentiment: divergences are disappearing, skeptics are fewer,
the market
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As the market rebounds,
that “$230 million-level whale” has stubbornly turned the story into a reversal success story.
Half a month ago, his long position was at a floating loss of $7400 ten thousand;
Now not only has he fully recovered his position,
but also turned a floating profit of $2682 ten thousand—
The value this rebound has brought him exceeds $1 billion USD.
Even more heartbreaking:
The market’s original script was 👇
$ETH ETH falling to $2100, blowing him out, then a legendary rebound
But what happened?
It didn’t give anyone a chance to get on board, it just rebounded 😂
Current
ETH-3,37%
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Let me break it down for you—Is this truly “consensus,” or just “collective dreaming”?
First, the conclusion:
👉 is half trend judgment, half emotional projection.
1️⃣ Price forecast: $ETH ETH 9000, $BTC BTC 200,000
This is a “possible range,” not a certainty.
BTC 200,000 ≈ current 90,000 → multiply by 2.2
ETH 9000 ≈ current 3,000 → multiply by 3
Under the premise of #ETF + institutional allocation + US dollar liquidity not continuing to tighten,
👉 is not unreasonable, but highly dependent on macroeconomic conditions.
The real question isn’t “Can it reach?”
But:
Before reaching, can you hold
ETH-3,37%
BTC-2,07%
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mejri777vip:
Bullish market at its peak 🐂
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Still not over? The market is starting to bet on “#伊朗事件 ”.
This time it’s not the media, not analysts, but the prediction market + alternative data leading the way.
What’s happening?
According to PolyBeats monitoring:
3 days ago, Trump posted a warning:
“If Iran violently suppresses peaceful protesters, the US will come to the rescue.”
And explicitly stated: “Target locked, action ready.”
An hour ago, the so-called “barometer of war news” Pizza Index showed an anomaly:
👉 surged by 1250%
In the past 24 hours:
There are 4 new accounts created this month
👉 only involved in Iran-related markets
BTC-2,07%
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WaitForMyMilletToSettle.vip:
Awesome, amazing, amazing!
2026 First Trading Day: #BTC Has Officially Entered the "Fund-Driven Stage"
On January 2nd, $BTC BTC spot #ETF net inflow of 471 million USD.
The significance of this number is far more important than "whether it will rise today."
Because just prior to this, in November–December:
Spot BTC ETF net outflows totaled approximately 4.57 billion USD
Including a single-month net outflow of 1.09 billion USD in December
A large number of retail investors panicked and sold at the 90K–93K range
And now——
Institutions bought back nearly one-tenth in one day.
Meanwhile, three key capital signals appeared
BTC-2,07%
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Start of the Year January Outlook: Is the Christmas rally continuing into the new year?
In the first two trading days before New Year’s Day, the market performance was not good:
#美股 Slight pullback, BTC remains volatile, sentiment is cautious.
But last weekend’s swift action by the US against Venezuela clearly changed the market’s risk pricing.
As analyzed in yesterday’s tweet—
Quick decisive action and reducing uncertainty are positive for risk assets.
To put it simply, global funds’ confidence in “US assets” ultimately depends on national strength and execution capability.
This move also s
BTC-2,07%
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Bitcoin MicroStrategy #Strategy is quietly shifting its narrative focus.
Last week, they continued to buy $BTC BTC from the market.
But unlike before — this time, the official emphasis was not on "how much Bitcoin was bought," but on repeatedly highlighting cash reserves.
The data is straightforward:
Cash reserves: $62 million → $2.25 billion
The additional over $2 billion mainly comes from ATM stock issuance.
In other words: selling stock at market price to US investors to exchange for cash.
This step is clearly not about storytelling but risk prevention.
Why start hoarding cash now?
A key t
BTC-2,07%
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#Tether , earned $13 billion in 2024.
This number might be a bit abstract, let’s put it into perspective.
#OpenAI : Revenue $3.7 billion, loss $5 billion
Anthropic: Revenue $1 billion, loss $5 billion
The amount spent in a year by two top AI companies,
together, still less than what Tether earns in a year.
Even more exaggerated is productivity.
Tether: about 150 people
OpenAI: 3000+ people
👉 per capita output is roughly 60 times less.
How does Tether make money?
In simple terms:
You work for them, they collect interest for you.
You buy 1 $USDT , they collect $1.
Then what?
👉 buys US Treasur
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Falcon_Officialvip:
HODL Tight 💪
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Those who have been mocking #以太坊 for being expensive and slow might really need to take another look.
#V 神 recently made a very significant judgment on X—
Ethereum is solving the "Blockchain Trilemma."
If this finally comes to fruition,
the competitive logic among $ETH vs $SOL vs $BSC could be completely rewritten.
1. Why has the Public Chain Trilemma always been unsolvable?
This is a classic problem proposed by V God in 2017:
👉 Decentralization / Security / High Performance, you can only choose two.
$BTC BTC: Decentralization + Security, sacrificing performance
SOL: Performance + Securi
ETH-3,37%
SOL-1,67%
BTC-2,07%
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GateUser-f8fb3732vip:
Thank you very much for the information 👋
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Vitalik: Ethereum has just solved the biggest problem in blockchain
#Vitalik announces two key facts:
ZK-EVM has reached production level
Proof time compressed to seconds, costs reduced by 45 times
PeerDAS is officially live on the mainnet
What does this mean?
👉 Decentralization + Consensus Security + Ultra-large Bandwidth
👉 The long-standing triad in blockchain considered “impossible to achieve simultaneously” has been broken through for the first time in engineering.
Ethereum’s upcoming roadmap
2026
Increase #gas capacity + Launch of the first ZK-EVM nodes
2026–2028
State re-pricing and
ETH-3,37%
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GoodLuckHasCome_nuyoahvip:
2026 Go Go Go 👊
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The investment logic of Chinese and American companies has completely diverged.
If you look at the top companies by market value in China and the US together, you'll find a very harsh reality:
They are no longer on the same growth trajectory.
🇨🇳 China: Scale-driven, stock-based, cash flow logic
Leading Chinese companies still mainly focus on:
Banks
Energy
Telecommunications
Traditional finance and infrastructure
The only common feature is:
Massive revenue, but very low growth.
Except for China Mobile, which can still maintain around 7% growth,
the rest are growing at less than 3%, with some
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