One thought leads to heaven, one thought leads to hell. The sharpest trading in December. #JapanInterestRateHike
$BTC
Crypto market seasonal arbitrage opportunities: short BTC/ETH, go all-in on FIL+ZEC!

By the end of 2025, the crypto market will enter a "polarization" phase—mainstream coins face dual pressure from technical and macro factors, while privacy coins and storage track leaders rise against the trend. Today, we dissect a precise arbitrage strategy: selectively short Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), while going long on Filecoin (FIL) and Zcash (ZEC). Using data and logic, we show you

#加密市场观察 How will Japan's interest rate hike affect the crypto market, and could there be a black swan?
The likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates on December 19, 2025, is very high. The market generally expects a 25 basis point hike to 0.75%, with an over 80% probability. A former BOJ official predicts that there could be three more rate hikes after this, with the final rate reaching 1.5%.
The upcoming rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) centers around withdrawing the "cheap yen" that has supported global high-risk assets for decades, which will trigger a severe market reasses

#数字资产生态回暖 Bitcoin midday dip slightly retraces, currently trading around $90,165
The recent performance of Bitcoin has been quite interesting — a 0.24% decline this morning, testing the $90,000 level back and forth. Frankly, the market’s enthusiasm has indeed cooled down, trading volume is lackluster, and everyone is waiting for the next signal.
Why so dull? The key factor is the Bank of Japan. At the meeting scheduled for December 18-19 next week, economists largely agree: there's over a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, from 0.5% directly to 0.75%. The numbers may seem small, b

The crypto industry is the highest level of testimony; as long as your judgment is correct, you can legally plunder the money of those with less knowledge and physically eliminate their wealth. There is no need to debate with them online; all those with lower cognitive levels than you can have their assets redistributed in the market.
Currently, there are actually two most important things in the market:
First: No need to think about interest rate hikes anymore; there will be another cut in 2026 and 2027. Don't fuss over "not enough cuts" or "not enough力度"; that's not our concern. The on

Cryptocurrency is the same. Its survival is not due to hype but because it genuinely solves the problems of cross-border transaction security and efficiency, and also meets the needs of the global gray economy and dark web economy. These are not issues that any country can dismiss with a snap of the fingers.
Why are we cracking down so hard now?
It's not because cryptocurrencies are bad, but because the economic structure doesn't allow it. Simply put:
Domestic asset prices are far higher than overseas, creating a huge capital outflow differential under capital controls; and the economy

Deep Analysis of the Latest Powell Speech:
1. Policy Implementation: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, the expected "drop" has materialized.
2. Dot Plot Signals: Significant divergence in future expectations. The 2026 dot plot shows a wide range of views, with a median expectation of only 1–2 rate cuts. However, it’s important to note that with the Fed Chair changing next year, the policy path is highly uncertain, and the current dot plot has limited reference value.
3. Key Clarification on "Liquidity Injection" (Focus)
This month, the Fed actually injected

#美联储重启降息步伐 $ZEC
Tonight's blockbuster meeting will be held at 3 o'clock, which could be a key turning point in the crypto market in the near future.
The market is already widely expecting: the Fed will cut the rate by 25 basis points as planned. But the real highlight is actually someone else. This operation routine is called "hawkish rate cut" - sounds contradictory, right? It is to release liquidity while sending a strong signal: "It's almost enough, don't expect it later." "
There is now a lot of noise within the Fed:
· Dovish members are worried about the job market slipping and advocate c

#数字货币市场洞察 Whale Standoff at the Edge of Survival
On Hyperliquid, a ZEC short whale is in deep trouble—currently sitting on an unrealized loss of $1.4 million. This isn’t a small matter; that’s like smashing a luxury car. He had been continuously adding to his short position, but got caught off guard by the recent rebound, forcing him to cut some positions to reduce pressure. However, there’s still a $25.7 million short stuck in his account, hanging over him like a looming risk.
Interestingly, his liquidation price is set at $886, which is still a long way from the current price. This suggests

There are three very critical time points in December, and the market movement over the next three weeks will basically revolve around these three events. Let me briefly summarize them for you:
First: December 11, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
Originally, the market expected that there would be no rate cut in December, but now the probability of a rate cut has been hyped up to around 87%.
Second: December 19, the Bank of Japan interest rate decision. The market had always believed that the Bank of Japan would not raise rates in December, but earlier this week, the governor sudden

#比特币对比代币化黄金 At 3 a.m. on December 11, this time could become the watershed moment for this year’s financial markets. The Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision doesn’t just affect the trajectory of gold; it has a ripple effect on the pricing of all risk assets.
Currently, the market has already fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut. What could truly make waves are the subtle changes in wording within the decision statement, as well as Powell’s off-the-cuff remarks at the press conference—these details often serve as the spark for major market moves.
Right now, gold is consolidating at high

#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 Looked through BTC's monthly-level pullback data from the past few years and found some interesting patterns.
A healthy pullback in a bull market usually falls within the 30%-40% range. If it’s really turning bearish, it tends to crash right through 50%. Right now, we’re down 36% from the top, which honestly is still within the safe boundary. The more crucial factor is time—the normal adjustment cycle starts at three months, and we're only halfway through that.
So, for the next month or so, there’s a high probability we'll keep consolidating, with the main battleground repeat

In the past day, DOGE has been stirring things up again.
The price looks lukewarm—$0.1491, down 0.75%, but with a trading volume of $1.24 billion and a market cap over $24 billion, this dog is proving resilient. The real action is on-chain: big players have quietly scooped up 480 million DOGE in the past couple of days, equivalent to $71.8 million. Note, this isn’t contract gambling; it’s solid spot accumulation.
This move pushed the price up to $0.1534, a 2.5% rebound, nearly breaking above the 23-day moving average. The futures side is even crazier—on one platform, DOGE contract volume surge

📊 Morning of December 4, Bitcoin #BTC Latest Market Update
Bitcoin has successfully achieved a V-shaped reversal, rebounding strongly from the December 1 low near $83,800 and reaching above $94,000 at its peak. This rally has improved daily technical indicators, with the MACD forming a golden cross, and the price climbing back above the 100-hour simple moving average. However, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, with the Fear and Greed Index at 28, placing it in the "Fear" zone. The main drivers behind this movement include expectations of future Fed rate cuts, renewed institution

Why did the yen interest rate hike affect the crypto world?
Because in the past few years, the cheapest money in the world has been in Japan. Many institutions and large players first borrow yen at extremely low interest rates, convert it into US dollars, and then leverage into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and various altcoins to speculate. This operation is called "yen arbitrage trading," with a scale that is astonishing, with two to three percent of the funds flowing into crypto. In simple terms: the bull market in the crypto world over the past few years has been supported by cheap money from

Virtual Money is not currency and is not allowed to circulate domestically.
It means:
Don't think that the domestic market will lift the ban; it's impossible in the short term. Because once it's lifted, it opens the door for capital outflow. So this is just to tell everyone: "Don't hold any illusions." "Businesses related to Virtual Money are all illegal financial activities."
That means doing these things domestically:
Development, operation, maintenance, community, events, conferences...
All belong to "illegal".
But the reality is:
As long as you don’t act high-profile, don’t

Tomorrow is another critical Node — Fed Chairman Powell is set to speak. Last time he spoke, Bitcoin took a Plummet, and this time the market will have to follow his rhythm again.
The market is now betting in two directions:
If he emphasizes that inflation has not yet been suppressed and implies that interest rate cuts will be delayed, then the crypto market is likely to be under pressure. After all, when liquidity expectations tighten, risk assets struggle.
But if he shifts his tone and says that the economic slowdown needs attention and that the pace of interest rate cuts may be maintained,

On November 30, #香港稳定币监管框架 , DOGE delivered an intriguing report card.
The price has been relatively stable, hovering around $0.15, with a slight drop of 0.3% over the past 24 hours. However, trading volume has exploded — $1.132 billion, a daily increase of 23.4%. This "price remains stable while volume leads" signal is well understood by seasoned traders: it’s either a washout or funds are quietly positioning themselves. The RSI is at 42.5, in the neutral zone, but the fear and greed index has dropped to 25, indicating extremely conservative market sentiment.
The institutions are indeed takin

#ETH巨鲸增持 is still watching whether to enter a position in Bitcoin? Perhaps the concern should not be that the price is too high, but that it is simply impossible to buy any coin.
The latest on-chain data has revealed an astonishing fact: governments around the world collectively hold 521,540 BTC, which, based on the current price of $91,407, means this batch of state-held assets has exceeded $4.76 billion in value. More importantly, this number accounts for 2.48% of the total Bitcoin supply—sounds like not much? But it’s important to note that the BTC available for trading in the circulation

As the end of the month approaches, the market continues to maintain a fluctuating upward trend. Although slow, there is vitality. It has successfully broken through 90,000, and there are a few key signals coming up:
1. There is not much room for decline in the next 3-5 days, as the daily chart shows the first golden cross. There is an upward demand that is likely to last at least 3 to 4 days.
2. The sell-off by BlackRock has shifted from pure selling to buying more and selling less.
Therefore, in the coming days, we can still focus on buying on dips! However, it is important to pay attention

Almost all successful traders, while realizing their own value through trading, adhere to three iron rules:
First, the underlying logic of trading is to set stop-losses at critical positions and take a chance. Those who can understand this sentence must have used a large number of trading patterns before realizing that the four words 'critical positions' are the core of trading, rather than randomly entering the market.
Secondly, understand human nature and respond to emergencies through risk control and stop-loss strategies. Most of the technical methods we learn can lead to profit, b