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9h ago

As the Middle East conflict persists, how will Bitcoin respond if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surges above 5%?
The answer might surprise you~
First, the conclusion: short-term shock, medium-term divergence, long-term could be a different story.
Phase One: Liquidity Harvest, Bitcoin Takes the Hit First
The moment yields break 5%, a very mechanical market reaction will occur—
With risk-free returns so attractive, why hold high-volatility assets?
Institutions will start to withdraw, retail investors will follow, and Bitcoin’s liquidity will tighten instantly.
This logic was vali

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10h ago

🇯🇵 Japan's 2-year government bond yield rises to 1.315%, reaching the highest level in nearly 30 years.
The 2-year government bond yield is at its highest in decades. The 10-year government bond yield exceeds 2.3%. The 30-year government bond yield is 3.55%.
As a background, Japan has kept interest rates near zero for 30 years. An entire generation of Japanese investors has never experienced a normal interest rate environment.
This is why the impact of this situation is not limited to Japan.
Japanese institutions are the world's largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries and European

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10h ago

Roger (currently 84 years old) has recently issued multiple public warnings: a severe global financial crisis could erupt in 2026, with destructive power or even surpassing 2008, mainly due to global debt exceeding $337 trillion, an AI bubble, and cyclical resonance.
The seasoned veteran directly stated: in 2026, we may face the most serious financial crisis of his lifetime, even surpassing 2008.
Crisis logic: high global debt + overheated AI narrative + cyclical resonance, these three factors stacking together naturally amplify the risk.
His actions—liquidating U.S. stocks and shifting

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11h ago

A global recession may seem far off, but it could be right around the corner—
On the surface, everything still looks fine, but underlying variables are quietly changing: oil prices are staying high, economic data is beginning to weaken, and capital is retreating defensively.
In this stage, the most typical feature is—it's not crashing yet, but it's becoming increasingly uncomfortable—
According to Dow Theory, there is a classic rhythm: before a true trend reversal, the market often enters a period of “divergence intensification.”
You’ll see fluctuations in ups and downs, and the direction beco

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14h ago

Looking at the Middle East situation, remember this: don't listen to what he says, watch what he's doing～
Trump's public statements often function more like "emotional management tools," while the real information content is typically hidden in military movements. Recent U.S. military forward deployments and troop concentrations show a noticeably accelerating pace—such actions are hard to dismiss as mere posturing～
From a game theory perspective, negotiating leverage at the table has never come from words alone, but from the chips you hold in your hand. If follow-up moves involve seizing key s

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20h ago

Iran states that it could close the critical Strait of Hormuz if its territory or islands are attacked.
Details are as follows:
1. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage connecting the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea.
2. Approximately 12% of global maritime oil transportation passes through the Strait of Hormuz
3. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's fourth largest shipping chokepoint
4. If both the Hormuz and Mandab oil fields are shut down, total production stoppage capacity could approach 25 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 25% of global supply.

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03-25 07:36

Handshakes at the negotiating table, engines roaring on the runway—the Middle East is about to change this weekend.
Vance and Rubio are still opening talks,
while F-35C has already landed at RAF bases in the UK.
These two things happening simultaneously on the same weekend~
The State Department says: We seek peace.
The Pentagon says: "Epic Fury Operation"—stand by for takeoff.
Throughout history, every "talk while fighting" combination punch ends with the negotiating table unable to withstand the engine noise from the runway.
F-35C launching from land bases, F-35B deploying simultaneously from

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03-25 06:19

We've secured profits on the #CRCL call options we sold ~
Everyone is just starting to find reasons for yesterday's crash ~
The short-term rapid surge itself was the reason for the decline ~
Approaching it from a technical perspective always gives you a step ahead ~
In the future, when it rises again, it will be the same ~
No need to be too harsh on chasing news ~

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03-25 05:19

🎭 After Being Deceived Twice, Iran Learned Its Lesson—But Trump Is Still Sending Invitations
There's an unspoken rule in diplomatic history:
The first time you're deceived, it's called trust. The second time you're deceived, it's called a lesson. The third time you're deceived... that's your own problem.
Iranian officials have been blunt about it—
"We don't want to be fooled again."
Translated into diplomatic language, this means: one thing at the negotiating table, another thing when approving missile strikes—we're not having these meetings anymore.
Let's rewind the previous two rounds of op

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03-25 03:29

Iran's Supreme Joint Military Command Spokesman: Energy and oil price levels from the past will not be restored until Iran's armed forces ensure regional stability.

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03-25 03:24

The system doesn't talk nonsense, signals speak——looking back, every signal my system has issued is accurate～
Late November last year, #IXIC Nasdaq, trend short signal. Correct～
Early March this year, #SPY S&P 500, trend short signal. Correct～
Late November, #NVDA Nvidia, trend short signal, $198 is the line of life and death, no break means no reversal.
Correct～
Mid-October, #Bitcoin, trend short signal, unreversed to date.
Correct～
Spanning stock markets, tech leaders, crypto markets——
This isn't luck in one single product, it's systematic judgment across markets.
It's easy to review this in

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03-25 03:18

⚠️ Turn off the news feed, and before long, the crash is coming～
What's the most dangerous thing in the market right now?
It's not bad news, it's not a crash——
It's too much information, too much noise, making you forget the big picture.
One bombshell headline every day, one reversal every hour, emotions get dragged around, positions get shaken up, and in the end you find yourself in a wave of volatility, swapping your chips around endlessly, but making zero progress～
Yet none of the underlying issues get solved:
Hormuz Strait blockade continues to ferment → Oil prices stubbornly elevated → In

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03-25 02:45

Not discussing technicals today, just chatting about this Middle East "macro chess game"～
Trump's recent series of statements are all about controlling the pace～
On one hand, by suppressing oil prices to stabilize market sentiment and give US stocks "life support," he's delayed a stock market crash～
On the other hand, he's creating a time window for subsequent military operations. This kind of operation is actually more like throwing combination punches, not single-point strikes～
The key variable still comes down to the Strait of Hormuz～ To win this war, you must secure it～
This isn't just an

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03-24 09:46

📊 That upper shadow has said it all.
Candlesticks never waste words.
That upper shadow on the US stock chart yesterday quietly sat there, saving all analysts a report~
It surged upward but couldn't hold.
These four words are the market's complete answer.
No matter how lively the news, how euphoric the sentiment, the price ultimately fell back—the essence of an upper shadow is: someone was waiting for you at the high, and they've been waiting for a long time.
Brief news stimuli can push the price up, but can't move the sell orders that were already buried there.
The overall logic

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03-24 09:41

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03-24 01:34

Iran's weapon of retaliation: soaring oil prices~
So you'll notice that every time oil prices drop, Iran causes trouble~
This is also Trump's Achilles' heel~

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03-23 13:34

Iran is now run by the Revolutionary Guards～
This is very important～
If Little Ha were still around, it would keep happening over and over～

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03-23 03:06

Winter is coming

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03-23 02:33

🌅 Seize Today—Because the Days Ahead Might Not Be This Good
Some say today is the worst day in history,
while others say today is the best day in the coming months.
Both statements were voiced today, which is quite thought-provoking~
But think about it carefully—the logic of the latter is chilling:
It's not because today is so good, but because what comes next might be much harder.
The Strait of Hormuz blockade continues to escalate, Japan's hundred-billion-level sell-off lands Monday, US Treasury yields remain elevated, rate hike expectations reignite, East Asian energy crisis risks mount, g

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03-22 22:36

📉 "The worst day in history" — someone actually said this today.
It takes courage to say this, or perhaps… it takes data.
We're not sure which.
But when you lay out today's backdrop, you'll find this statement isn't without reason —
The Strait of Hormuz de facto blockade is still unfolding, oil prices keep climbing; Japan's largest-scale overseas asset selloff in a decade is coming Monday; US Treasury yields at 4.37%, capital is still flowing to the risk-free end; Fed December rate hike expectations are re-igniting, the rate-cut narrative is falling apart; East Asian economic crisis risks are

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