The worst Q4 for Bitcoin in 7 years.
Bitcoin went onto appreciate 170% over the following two quarters.

A highlight of mine this year was watching the price of bitcoin fall $28,000 in nine days.

The common stock dilution FUD is insane as Saylor's wealth is mostly tied to his 20 million Class B shares in MSTR, economically equivalent 1:1 to publicly traded Class A shares.
A drop in Class A stock price directly reduces the value of his net worth, which the Class B make up 70%+.

So the MSTR bears have gone from insolvency to saying @saylor was wrong on his timing.
Which now sounds more like an upside issue than a downside issue.
People are now criticizing @saylor for doing the cash reserve buffer too late and saying he should have ATMd while the stock was at a 3x mNAV and buying BTC at all-time highs.

Jane Street has some work to do today.
Must have thought they could get Christmas off early.

Everyone screaming that the world is coming to an end because gold is up 70% YTD.
Gold is up 150% over the past 5 years, it was extremely undervalued, nothing more.
It has 2.5x returns since December 2020.
It is breaking to new highs against money supply.

I’m in contact with a lot of sell-side research analysts and that majority of them are bearish bitcoin for 2026.
We need more capitulation but we’re getting closer.

Bitcoin held $85k like a champ, amid all the macro doom events.
The bottom was exactly 30 days ago.
My base case is a few more days of chop until options expiry.
BTC then pushes toward $92k–$98k shortly after. Helped by a Santa rally, and possible max pain drift.
A gamma squeeze as well with a directional breakout as market makers hedge/expire positions, rebalance flows.
A breakout above 92k would enter negative gamma territory.
That’s how I’m positioning myself.

Is $88,000 per coin cheap or expensive right now?

It appears that Quantum FUD, or other FUD, is loudest when Bitcoin is in downward or sideways markets.
Quantum is an issue that can be solved, but achieving consensus seems to be the most challenging part.
Chaincode has one of the best research papers I’ve read on the matter.

Metaplanet are being priced with a higher mNAV than Strategy.
That doesn’t scream to me risk-off.

One more hour to go until bitcoin goes back to $85k

Metaplanet have a higher mNAV than Strategy
In a risk-off environment, some would say bear market.

Luke Gromen flipping bearish after the 36% correction is not "alpha".
He has also been wrong more times than not.