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Why is this Bitcoin cycle completely different from the previous ones?

For years, the market has learned to treat Bitcoin's cycles as something almost predictable.
Halving, acceleration, euphoria, top.
But this cycle broke that logic - and it wasn't in the price, it was in the structure.
BTC0.46%
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Last edited on 2025-12-16 13:20:51
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👀Target Achieved🔥
Challenge 100 → 1000 | Day 1 - 📅 12/15/2025
🔹 Capital
Initial bankroll: US$ 100.00
Current bankroll: US$ 106.33
🔹 Period Operations:
Total trades: 6
Winning trades: 4
Losing trades: 2
Win rate: 66.66%
🔹 Net Result
Period result: +6.33%
Cumulative result: +6.33%
6️⃣ $NXPC (Short)
Open: 12/15/2025 – 06:55
Close: 12/18/2025 - 18:37
Entry: 0.4160
Exit: 0.3562
RR: 4.53
Result: +US$ 3.93
Starting tomorrow, we will resume operations applying the rules I mentioned in the last post of the series.
NXPC2.11%
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Sincere question, would you have closed this operation manually or would you keep it open? 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
I am keeping it open and still at risk, meaning if it turns back, I could still lose money. #trading
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Challenge 100 → 1000 | Day 1 - 📅 12/15/2025
🔹Capital
Initial bankroll: US$ 100.00
Current bankroll: US$ 102.39
🔹 Period operations:
Total trades: 6
Winning trades: 3
Losing trades: 2
Win rate: 60%
🔹 Net result
Period result: +2.39%
Cumulative result: +2.39%
🧠 Day observations
This first day of the challenge had significant events, especially in #AXL and one open position. An important change I will make to the project is to close all trades at 22:00, regardless of the outcome.
👉 This rule will take effect once the last currently open position is closed.
⚠️ Important notes
Note ¹: I open
MOVE1.62%
GUN-2.16%
FORM-0.05%
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MauerTradervip
Challenge 100 → 1,000: a process experiment, not a promise
On the 15th of this month, I will start a daily series documenting the performance of a wallet with a simple goal to understand but difficult to execute: turning US$ 100 into US$ 1,000 by trading cryptocurrency futures.
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Payroll released: what really matters ( and what is noise )?

The Payroll has been released.
The market reacted.
And most are looking in the wrong place.
If you think this data alone defines the next market move, you are trading the noise — not the scenario.
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In previous cycles, the tops came with negative real interest rates.
Today, they remain positive — and the data released today reinforce this point.
Maybe the market is looking at the chart… when it should be looking at the regime.
#CPI #FOMC‬⁩
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Good evening.
I will owe the post with today's results (15/12/2025), as there are still two open trades. In any case, I can tell you that the result so far is positive. Since I haven't set rules for closing by time, conduction, or something similar, these two trades have ended up becoming swing trades — the market 'decided' that.
As soon as they are closed, I will update with the results.
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MauerTradervip
Challenge 100 → 1,000: a process experiment, not a promise
On the 15th of this month, I will start a daily series documenting the performance of a wallet with a simple goal to understand but difficult to execute: turning US$ 100 into US$ 1,000 by trading cryptocurrency futures.
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Pre-Payroll: the market isn't falling by chance — it's protecting itself

The market entered defensive mode even before the data was released.
**Bitcoin fell**, **altcoins fell even more**, and volatility reappeared strongly.
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The Fed cut interest rates… and Bitcoin fell.
Contradictory? Only for those who look at the data and ignore the context.
The market didn't fall because of a cut.
It fell because the cut was accompanied by a speech that kept real interest rates high for longer.
📌 What really mattered:
✅ The 25 bps cut was already priced in
✅ The Fed made it clear that there is no rush for new cuts
✅ Real interest rates remain positive
✅ Risk appetite continues to be limited
In other words:
the market received relief but not confirmation of a liquidity cycle.
And when real interest rates stay high, risk assets
BTC0.46%
ETH3.07%
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Challenge 100 → 1,000: a process experiment, not a promise

On the 15th of this month, I will start a daily series documenting the performance of a wallet with a simple goal to understand but difficult to execute: turning US$ 100 into US$ 1,000 by trading cryptocurrency futures.
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What if the true ATH of this cycle hasn't happened yet?
Historically, the peaks came with negative real interest rates.
Today, they are positive.
Coincidence… or structural delay of the cycle?
👉 Understand the thesis in the full article (https://www.gate.com/post/status/16791520?ref=VLJDUAXCUQ&ref_type=105)
$BTC
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This is the first cycle of $BTC com:
• halving under positive real interest rates
• spot ETFs absorbing liquidity daily
• much more institutional market
If you analyze 2025 with the logic of 2017, you might be making a costly mistake.
#HALVIN
📌 Full analysis in the article.
BTC0.46%
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MauerTradervip
Why is this Bitcoin cycle completely different from the previous ones?
For years, the market has learned to treat Bitcoin's cycles as something almost predictable.
Halving, acceleration, euphoria, top.
But this cycle broke that logic - and it wasn't in the price, it was in the structure.
repost-content-media
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Everyone repeats that the halving defines the cycles of $BTC .
But this cycle ignored the classic script.
High interest rates, ETFs draining supply, and institutions setting the pace.
👉 Why is this cycle structurally different from previous ones?
Full article in the profile.
#btc #halving
BTC0.46%
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MauerTradervip
Why is this Bitcoin cycle completely different from the previous ones?
For years, the market has learned to treat Bitcoin's cycles as something almost predictable.
Halving, acceleration, euphoria, top.
But this cycle broke that logic - and it wasn't in the price, it was in the structure.
repost-content-media
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Interest rates cut by the Fed — but does this really change the direction of prices?
I put together a straightforward article with data, context, and what might happen in the upcoming market movements.
👉 Click to see the analysis before it's too late.
NOS-0.04%
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MauerTradervip
FOMC Post-Decision: What the Interest Rate Cut Means for the Crypto World
Most reactions to the FOMC come from a superficial reading.
The market looks at the number — cut or hike — and ignores what really moves prices: the speech, the projections, and the Fed's degree of conviction.
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Many people didn't understand the significance of yesterday's interest rate cut... but the market did. I prepared a clear summary of the impact of this decision on the dollar, commodities, and crypto.
👉 Access the full article and get prepared before opening any trade.
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MauerTradervip
FOMC Post-Decision: What the Interest Rate Cut Means for the Crypto World
Most reactions to the FOMC come from a superficial reading.
The market looks at the number — cut or hike — and ignores what really moves prices: the speech, the projections, and the Fed's degree of conviction.
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The Fed cut interest rates — and the market has already started to react.
I explained in the article the real impact of this on $BTC and assets, and what you need to watch out for before trading in the next few hours.
👉 Read now and don't trade in the dark.
BTC0.46%
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MauerTradervip
FOMC Post-Decision: What the Interest Rate Cut Means for the Crypto World
Most reactions to the FOMC come from a superficial reading.
The market looks at the number — cut or hike — and ignores what really moves prices: the speech, the projections, and the Fed's degree of conviction.
repost-content-media
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FOMC Post-Decision: What the Interest Rate Cut Means for the Crypto World

Most reactions to the FOMC come from a superficial reading.
The market looks at the number — cut or hike — and ignores what really moves prices: the speech, the projections, and the Fed's degree of conviction.
BTC0.46%
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Last edited on 2025-12-15 18:23:32
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Tomorrow is Fed decision day — and this could create the best opportunities… or the worst traps in the crypto market.
BTC, ETH, altcoins: everything could react very differently depending on the announcement.
What should you watch for before the FOMC knocks on the door?
👇I explained it in the full article. Check it out.
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ETH3.07%
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MauerTradervip
Pre-FOMC: What to Expect, and How Crypto Might React
Tomorrow the world is watching the FOMC. The decision on US interest rates is set to move not only traditional markets — but also the crypto universe. If you follow crypto, it's worth paying attention.
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Everyone talks about the FOMC… but hardly anyone understands how it impacts the crypto world.
Tomorrow the game changes — for better or worse.
Do you want to know what could happen if the Fed cuts, holds, or raises interest rates?
And which scenario the market is actually expecting?
👇I put everything in the article. Worth reading before the decision.
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MauerTradervip
Pre-FOMC: What to Expect, and How Crypto Might React
Tomorrow the world is watching the FOMC. The decision on US interest rates is set to move not only traditional markets — but also the crypto universe. If you follow crypto, it's worth paying attention.
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🚀🚀LUNC could go far… or not💥💥
LUNC’s recent surge has drawn attention—and brought a lot of speculation with it.
But the coin carries a heavy history, extreme tokenomics, and a narrative split between hope and caution.
If you want to understand what's driving this and what $LUNC 's real potential is, I broke everything down in the article.
👇 Go check it out and read.
LUNC-1.14%
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MauerTradervip
LUNC – Terra Classic: A Complete Analysis of the Coin That Refuses to Die
After the collapse that destroyed over $40 billion in value and forever redefined the topic of "systemic risks in algorithmic stablecoins," the former LUNA became one of the most controversial assets in the market. However, even after the historic crash, Terra Classic remains alive.
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