Distribution doesn't mean cycle end. There is distributive and accumulation-like behaviour all the time, so saying because we've distributed at the top, doesn't alone mean we've ended the run. But you should note that after distribution we need a period of accumulation to move forward first Here are a few examples.
Another statement, that I feel is quite unpopular is: "Metals ripping is good for crypto" As I mostly see peeps being salty and angry that Gold, Silver and the rest are moving and it means that Bitcoin and alts are "done for". I disagree.
[ $ZEC ] A technical breakdown on Zcash here. To me this looks like the start of another leg lower in the ballpark of 40-50%. Added to watchlist for potential shorts. A breakdown from the EMA and diagonal at the same time is a good signal as it shows a strong bearish momentum to break both.
[ $CRV - Subscriber request ] Curve looks great here. The entire DeFi sector is (sharing index analysis next time). It went back to the 2020 low and swept the low of (A) wave. Immediate reclaim after. ATM we're right at the monthly area, battling. This would be a completion of an ABC correction from the local highs from Dec 2024. So complete W1 and W2. Preparing for W3.
From early 2025 on I was called an idiot for spreading my thesis about extending the run beyong 2025 because "Muh 4y cycle". I still get lots of insults for not changing my mind about that and reply guys trying to convince me that we've topped. And I still say: "We haven't seen what crypto's capable of. It's taking longer than anyone expected, but we're getting there."
[ $PENGU ] Back in Pengu. Few takeaways from this chart that the reversal is in progress: - channel broke to the upside, - each time we got a break above the EMA, gaps were left behind, so we don't necessarily need to go lower here, - volume supporting this move.
One month closer to the Copper/Gold ratio MACD cross, which signalled the start of the fun period in crypto coming up and risk-on in general. If nothing major happens, it crosses with January's close.