When the macro heats up, so will bitcoin.
Get ready for higher prices, much higher.

According to atleast 80-90% of people, there are only 2 outcomes possible for bitcoin.
1. Bear market crash to 50k or less Q4 2026
2. One move higher to 140-150k in Q1 2026, then bear market crash to 50k.
What could go wrong?

Looking at some stock market data that has consistently triggered each cycle - so far only 1 of 5 has triggered. The red line comes closest to the bitcoin top (within 2-4 weeks).
The order is fairly consistent aswell. To believe that bitcoin is going to nuke from here can only mean one thing - bitcoin is dead. I DO NOT believe this is going to happen though.
I expect the correlation to the stock market to continue.
*Please don't ask me what is on the chart. Updates will only be shared with discord members.
**It is not fake data; otherwise I would/could have made it look perfect.

This time is NOT different. Bitcoin will go higher, and so will MVRV Z-score.

Once the flippening happened between $COIN and $MSTR, it's been a slow grind up only.

$IWM vs U.S 10 year yield
I have mentioned higher yields are bullish before.
Higher yields mean reflation = macro expansion = stocks and risk assets (like btc/crypto) UP.
*As long as yields dont break out above certain levels, this is bullish going forward.
Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
The chart below shows when the 10 year yield bottoms (red circles), $IWM likes to break out to new highs shortly after (which is happening now - vertical white lines).

Bitcoin looks like it is coiling.

Breadth expansion. Mid caps, Equal weight, small caps all outperforming SPY and Q.
NOT late cycle.

Anyone who sees this $IWM chart and thinks bearish needs help.

Potential path for $ETH Ethereum

Many people are drawing comparisons to early 2022, when bitcoin broke below the 50 week moving average.
There are many reasons why this is not good analysis. This is the typical over simplification found on twitter.
Firstly, until recently price did not really interact so well with this moving average. There are better moving averages to use, that have acted as support / resistance more frequently throughout bitcoins history, and continue to do so.
Secondly, let's not forget these over simpilfications shift - once one is wrong, then the next one is brought along to fit a bearish bias.
Sure t

Where most think we are on bitcoin (red boxes)
vs
Where I think we are (green boxes)