Rickawsb

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Are U.S. stocks now fully in the clone season?
I know this script well 🤣
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Recently, the AI chip darling that submitted an IPO—Cerebras—has become a sensation in Silicon Valley.
Its chips, in small model scenarios, can achieve inference speeds up to 20 times that of H100; for ultra-large models (such as 400B parameters), the response speed of the Cerebras CS-3 system for a single user is about 2.4 times that of B200.
So how exactly does Cerebras do it? Will it become a NVIDIA killer?
We need to start from the essence of computing power evolution.
The evolution of AI computing power is shifting from “raw compute” to “communication and system architecture.” On
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Weekend Deep Dive: Analyzing the Position, Boundaries, and Endgame of Independent Laser Players from the Trends in CPO + ELS Light Sources
AI computing power bottlenecks are shifting from computation to bandwidth. As GPU scale expands, inter-node communication approaches an N² growth pattern, with electrical interconnects reaching power and distance limits, turning optical interconnects from an "option" into a "necessity."
In this process, CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) and ELS (External Laser Source) are beginning to reshape the industry chain: lasers are being separated from module internals a
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I took a look, and now many well-known big V traders in the US stock market are just narrating stories about small-cap stocks.
My first-order thinking: value investing, no participation in gambling.
My second-order thinking: as a newbie in the crypto world, I must blindly go all-in 🤣.
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Moonshots channel's viewpoint today:
AI will invalidate Coase's Law
A revelation!
One of the most important reasons for an organization’s existence is that the coordination costs within the organization are lower than market transaction costs.
When AI reduces transaction costs by far more than the reduction in organizational costs, the significance of organizations is greatly diminished.
This is true for companies, and it’s the same for countries.
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ybaser:
Just charge forward 👊Just charge forward 👊
All knowledge (mental) workers will be replaced by AI
Including scientific research
Because, research = information processing + hypothesis generation + verification.
AI excels in each of these parts compared to humans, and is rapidly becoming more powerful.
Even the truly genius-level "Eureka" moments, such as the discovery of general relativity, may be the hardest to replace, but such scientific breakthroughs constitute a very small proportion.
Nevertheless, isn't general relativity also essentially the ultimate generalization of LLMs in the human brain?
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New record! What impact will a 15-year ultra-long-term power contract for a city-level population of 200k have on the upstream and downstream of AI data centers?
Applied Digital Corporation (apld) announced today that it has signed a 300MW, 15-year long-term contract worth approximately $7.5 billion with a U.S. investment-grade hyperscaler.
The stock price surged nearly 20% in response.
The 300MW scale is already close to the load of a city with a population of 200k, and the 15-year term clearly exceeds traditional data center contracts; moreover, the capacity-locked model is different f
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The "Invisible Central Hub" of Semiconductor Packaging: Inline Inspection and OSAT Repricing
The semiconductor industry is undergoing a shift in focus: performance improvements are no longer solely dependent on shrinking transistors but are increasingly reliant on packaging. 2.5D, 3D, HBM, chiplet—all essentially transfer "system capabilities" into the packaging stage. This directly elevates the strategic importance of OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test).
The rising importance of packaging has led to rapid growth in inline inspection.
OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly
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ybaser:
Just charge and you're done 👊
United Rentals (URI), reported earnings yesterday, surged over 20% today!
This is a support that the market has overlooked in the big cycle of AIDC's frantic race for computing power—these massive entities rely on heavy logistics.
1. Performance Summary: Record-breaking, upward guidance
URI delivered a perfect score this quarter:
Revenue and profit: Total revenue of $3.99B, adjusted EPS of $9.71.
Core efficiency: Rental profit margins have continued to rise after excluding special factors, with fleet productivity increasing by 2.3%.
Shareholder returns: Returned $500 million through buybacks a
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United Rentals (URI), reported earnings yesterday, surged over 20% today!
This is a support that the market has overlooked in the big cycle of AIDC's frantic race for computing power—these massive entities' "heavy logistics."
1. Performance Summary: Record-breaking, upward guidance
URI delivered a perfect score this quarter:
Revenue and profit: Total revenue of $3.99B, adjusted EPS of $9.71.
Core efficiency: Rental profit margins have continued to rise after excluding special factors, with fleet productivity increasing by 2.3%.
Shareholder returns: Returned $500 million through buybacks and di
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HighAmbition:
Diamond Hands 💎
Texas Instruments ($TXN) Q1 Earnings Report, Outperforming Expectations:
Earnings per share (EPS): $1.68 (expected $1.38)
Revenue: $4.83 billion (expected $4.53 billion)
Operating profit: $1.81 billion (expected $1.54 billion)
Free cash flow: $1.40 billion (expected $1.20 billion)
Capital expenditures (CapEx): $676 million (expected $689.9 million)
Analog chip revenue: $3.92 billion (expected $3.68 billion)
Q2 Guidance:
Expected EPS: $1.77–$2.05
Expected revenue: $5.00–$5.40 billion
Even the most critical analog business significantly outperformed the market’s previous pessimistic expectations
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Lam Research Earnings Preview
The key point of the upcoming LRCX earnings report is actually about where LRCX stands in the AI cycle and how its changes will transmit through the entire industry chain.
LRCX is not a simple equipment company but a typical beneficiary of process complexity.
The changes brought by AI are not just increased computing power demand, but a rapid rise in the complexity of the chip manufacturing process itself: increased stacking layers in HBM, deeper TSV etching difficulty, the number of layers in 3D NAND approaching physical limits, and 2nm/GAA 3D structures.
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HighAmbition:
The bullish market is at its peak 🐂
Is Kevin Wash's congressional hearing speech very hawkish?
"The independence of monetary policy is crucial. Decisions must be guided by national interests, based on rigorous analysis, thorough discussion, and clear judgment."
I think it's pretty standard; what else could he say?
If he doesn't state support for maintaining the Fed's independence, could he get Congress's approval?
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Insufficient training inference supplement
Inference insufficient proxy supplement
Proxy complex constraints supplement
Constraints troublesome everyone supplement
Therefore, accelerating computation is smart, and general computation is also
On the road to AGI, storage, GPU, and CPU will all be exhausted and severely in short supply
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harness, my favorite translation is
Constraint
So harness engineer
Should be called
Constraint Engineering
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BWX Technologies recently announced the acquisition of Precision Components Group. This is an expansion of production capacity—adding 500,000 square feet of factory space and more than 400 skilled workers—which, amid a cycle in which nuclear energy demand is being restarted, guarantees stable manufacturing delivery capabilities.
Nuclear energy is entering a new upswing cycle. The growth in electricity demand brought by AI, combined with policy-driven support for small modular reactors (SMRs) and a transition in energy mix, has once again put nuclear power in the position of a “stable baseloa
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My Claude Opus is 4.7.
Everyone should be using it now?
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The model is the application, computing power is the model, and the moment is eternity
—- Mythos release impressions
Over the past few years, through continuous iterations from prompt MCP, workflow skills to harness engineering, the market should have basically recognized that,
the model is the application.
Next, as model companies with sufficient computing power iterate at an increasingly rapid pace, the market will gradually realize that,
computing power is the model,
With the release of Mythos, and the leading models with computing power advantages continuously widening their le
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The model is the application, computing power is the model, and the moment is eternity
—- mythos release impressions
Over the past few years, from prompt MCP to workflow skill to the continuous iteration of harness engineering, the market should have already basically recognized that,
the model is the application.
Next, as model companies with multi-foot computing power iterate at an increasingly rapid pace, the market will slowly realize that,
computing power is the model,
with the release of methos, and with leading models that have computing power advantages continuously widenin
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Everything is code, whether software or hardware.
Even someone as powerful as Elon Musk cannot change the trend.
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