#比特币宏观表现 Seeing the Q4 drop of over 22%, I have to tell it straight. This rebound to 90k did catch a lot of people's attention, but looking at the logic behind it, you can tell this isn't a good sign.

Technical correction and real capital inflow are two different things. The initial drop was too sharp, and the rebound is just relieving oversold pressure. This kind of rebound is often the easiest to fool people. Look at where we are now—still down 30% from the start of the year. What does that tell you? It means there hasn't been any real new capital genuinely bullish on this market all year.

Seasonal factors deserve special attention here. In previous years, Q4was an active period for Bitcoin, but in years with tight liquidity, this "pattern" becomes a trap. Now we're seeing frequent pullbacks on the US session, indicating plenty of people are still stuck at higher prices and are desperate to cut losses at any bounce. In this situation, short-term volatility risk is substantial.

My advice is don't let this small rebound fool you. A true trend reversal needs volume support and genuine macroeconomic improvement, not just the technical side playing with itself. Before confirming a bottom signal, stay cautious. Living long beats moving fast.