#比特币价格预测与分析 After seeing this VanEck report, my first reaction is: the data does support rebound expectations. A 4% drop in hashrate is the largest decline since April, and historically there's a 65% probability of positive returns within 90 days following hashrate compression periods — this win rate is not low for professional traders.

However, there's a detail worth examining: rebound expectations don't equal guaranteed surges. James Wynn's revision from "doubling to 175,000" directly down to "at least 10% rebound" shows market expectations are adjusting. My understanding is that reduced mining activity does release bullish technical signals, but the magnitude needs to be discounted.

From a copy-trading perspective, the opportunity now lies in distinguishing how traders view this type of rebound: aggressive traders will directly chase gains trying to capture the entire wave, while conservative traders will wait for pullbacks to support levels before entering. I'm inclined to track accounts with clear stop-loss settings in place, since rebounds aren't necessarily straight-line movements — intermediate pullback risks need consideration too.

The hashrate cycle logic can serve as one filtering dimension for my copy-trading selection, but absolutely not the only reason. Practice has taught me that no matter how clean a single technical indicator's signal looks, it must be verified against capital flows and market sentiment. Right now is a good time to observe.