Since the start of 2026, the environment where Bitcoin operates has been distinctly different from the early rebound phases of previous cycles. Recently, the technical picture appears to be in recovery mode, and short-term strategy can be somewhat more aggressive, but from a larger structural perspective, the conditions to support a sustained rally are still not sufficiently robust. History tells us that once price breaks below the yearly line, the range that follows often becomes more challenging. Combined with weakening new capital inflows and slowing inflow velocity, this round of market action looks more like entering an environment that requires careful opportunity selection and strict adherence to trading discipline.

Super whales are reducing positions, but their approach is quite methodical. On-chain data shows that long-term holders have been distributing their holdings in an orderly fashion. After spot ETFs launched in early 2024, these super whales actually added to positions during the early-year pullback, with a turning point appearing in October 2024—their moves shifted from "accumulation" to "distribution." To date, this group has cumulatively sold approximately $61 billion worth of Bitcoin, and continues to show net selling pressure over the past 30 days.

Interestingly, these selling pressures have been largely absorbed by mid-sized whales, so price action has manifested as back-and-forth seesaw trading at high levels, rather than the type of accelerating rallies or panic dumps. Compared to the indiscriminate selling that followed the 2021 spring peak, this round of distribution is much more orderly and resembles the typical behavior of mature capital in the late cycle stages—this signal points to Bitcoin likely having already entered a cyclical top zone.

From the perspective of incremental capital flows, momentum is weakening, and price has already moved close to key support levels.