The first U.S. non-farm employment data of 2026 will be released tonight. The market expects 60,000 new jobs, down slightly from the previous 64,000. While this data appears modest, it directly impacts the Federal Reserve's subsequent rate-cut pace, USD exchange rate fluctuations, and consequently affects Bitcoin's short-term price movement.

Currently, BTC is oscillating around 90,500 with noticeably cautious investor sentiment. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has failed to hold above 95,000 on three attempts, with the low exploring 89,300, indicating persistent selling pressure above. If it breaks through 92,000, it will trigger liquidation of $1.15 billion in short positions, potentially sparking a short-term rebound; conversely, breaking below 89,000 puts $944 million in long positions at risk, with 87,000 becoming a key level for reassessment.

Community engagement has cooled somewhat, and institutional inflows are also decelerating, suggesting the market is in a wait-and-see phase. In the short term, swing traders should focus on the 92k to 104k range, but must be vigilant about the cascading effects if 87k breaks. A dual consideration of macro data and technical levels is essential to capitalize on opportunities in this volatile period.