Sau khi các nhà nắm giữ Bitcoin dài hạn bán tháo quy mô lớn: dữ liệu trên chuỗi cho thấy chu kỳ đã được đặt lại, đáy có thể đã hình thành

【Block Rhythm】Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) experienced the most aggressive sell-off period on record this year. On-chain data analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly points out that while such sell-offs previously triggered severe market volatility, the latest data shows this pressure may be easing — which could be paving the way for the next bull cycle.

From an on-chain perspective, the situation is indeed worth noting. In 2025, the quantity of bitcoin dormant for at least two years experienced significant fluctuations. Bitcoin worth nearly $300 billion that has been inactive for over a year has re-entered circulation. Most dramatically, in just 30 days from November 15 to December 14, the most intense long-term holder sell-off in over five years occurred — November set a record peak of 1.14 million BTC in 30-day distribution, the highest in history.

But there’s an interesting detail here: prices began to weaken in October, while the truly massive sell-off actually came later. This sequence is crucial. Tamuly believes this indicates the market is showing “panic selling” rather than orderly profit-taking — in other words, this marks a cycle reset, not a simple continuation of the previous trend. Since 2019, sharp declines in long-term holder supply have rarely occurred in isolation; they typically appear at stages when bitcoin’s trend shows fatigue, whether the uptrend is nearing exhaustion or during structural transitions.

More critical signals come from recent data. Since December, LTH supply has stopped declining, currently maintaining around 13.6 million BTC, while bitcoin price has entered a consolidation range. The long-term/short-term holder supply ratio provides further evidence. Whenever this ratio falls to -0.5 or lower, bitcoin either enters a bottoming phase or rebounds to new highs within weeks. In December last year, the ratio fell to approximately -0.53, after which price volatility narrowed and momentum stalled. This performance perfectly aligns with cycle reset characteristics.

Following this logic, consolidation in Q1-Q2 this year could constitute the bottom range, while any sustained rally is more likely to emerge thereafter, possibly unfolding in Q3.