#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 1January 9, when the US December non-farm employment data was released, it immediately triggered a chain reaction in the crypto market. Only 50,000 new jobs were added, far below market expectations of 55,000-65,000, and combined with the previous two months' data being revised downward by 76,000 jobs in total, the entire labor market is clearly softening.

What does this mean? Traders quickly adjusted their expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy for the entire year — there could be around 50 basis points of rate cuts this year. While a January rate cut is basically off the table, once this clear rate cut expectation path is established, it can continuously release the bullish momentum.

**Bitcoin's performance here speaks volumes.**

After the data was released, Bitcoin repeatedly tested the $90,000 level, a scenario typical of "rally-pullback-consolidation" — on January 8 it even briefly broke $91,000, then bounced back to around $90,500 under the support of rate cut expectations, with a 24-hour decline of 0.62%. In other words, Bitcoin's current trend is being torn apart by two forces: on one side is the safe-haven demand from poor economic expectations, on the other is the bullish anticipation of imminent rate cuts.

From an institutional perspective, after the wave of liquidations at the end of last year, funds are being reconfigured. ETF inflows may not be as strong, but structural demand is still there. Once the Federal Reserve truly initiates a rate-cutting cycle, Bitcoin breaking through the $95,000 resistance level will have stronger momentum, with targets potentially reaching $100,000.

But a reminder is still necessary: currently, the market is still in a "high-level consolidation plus cyclical pullback" rhythm. Macro data could fluctuate at any time, and don't underestimate volatility risks. If you're considering allocating positions, it's best to scale in on pullbacks, and be sure to control your leverage positions.