The latest US employment data just came out, and it's genuinely giving the market pause.

**The numbers speak for themselves—**

Non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 60,000 to 73,000. And it's not just this month that disappoints—prior months got revised down too—November was cut to 56,000, and October was straight-up revised to negative 173,000. Combining October and November, that's 76,000 fewer jobs created. Looking at the full-year scorecard, 584,000 new jobs added is the worst year since 2020. The unemployment rate threw a curveball though—4.4%, actually lower than the expected 4.5% and the previous 4.6%. Average hourly earnings held steady month-over-month at 0.3%, basically in line with expectations, no major drama.

**What does this mean for markets and policy?**

The Fed's rate-cut expectations just collapsed. The odds of another cut in January are basically zero. Traders are now betting the Fed will stand pat and keep monitoring employment and inflation trends. Looking ahead, the full-year rate-cut outlook has become much more cautious—nobody's confident about the pace anymore.

On the asset side, the dollar's under pressure and pulling back, while gold is seizing the opportunity to strengthen. US stock futures are up slightly, but market attention has already shifted to another phenomenon—companies are neither hiring much nor laying people off much, stuck in this "low hiring, low firing" standoff that's sending an alarming signal: the risk of jobless expansion. Is it just weather and holidays disrupting hiring patterns, or are companies taking a dim long-term view on demand? That'll only become clear after watching labor supply and productivity trends more carefully.