Cục Dự trữ Liên bang có thể giữ nguyên chính sách cho đến tháng 6, dưới sự không chắc chắn về thuế quan, thị trường chứng khoán và trái phiếu Mỹ đều có lợi ích riêng

【Chain Article】The latest December non-farm employment data has been released, and the conclusions are somewhat mixed—a mixed bag. The U.S. job market is clearly slowing down, with new job additions, job vacancy rates, and wage growth all showing signs of retreat. However, the unemployment rate has been a pleasant surprise, declining slightly.

Such results provide the Federal Reserve with more reasons to remain cautious. Based on reactions in interest rate futures and bond markets, investors have basically reached a consensus: the Fed will not cut rates in January, and the earliest possibility for rate cuts is June.

Here’s the issue—there’s another variable: the Supreme Court may rule that IEEPA tariffs are unconstitutional. If this actually happens, what would it mean? Economic expectations could improve, inflationary pressures could ease, but the fiscal deficit would expand further.

How should we understand the market impact? With the Federal Reserve not in a hurry to cut rates in the near term, combined with the weakening of tariff disruptions, U.S. Treasuries will face tough times. There’s a high probability they will maintain elevated levels for the long term. In contrast, U.S. stocks appear relatively optimistic, benefiting from sustained AI enthusiasm and the fading of tariff risks. In particular, companies in essential consumer goods and industrial sectors, which were originally victims of tariffs, now have a chance to catch their breath, and their rebound magnitude could be quite substantial.