#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 BTC stuck at this key resistance level, which is actually within my expectations. From the 0.65 to 0.75 range, approximately 10% of positions have been successfully unlocked. At this stage, market sentiment is generally cautious, so selling pressure is quite normal.

Over the past month, I've been tracking chip distribution, whale movements, long-term holder selling trends, futures basis, and options funding flows. The data shows panic sentiment is indeed easing gradually, but there's one thing making me uneasy — the changes in exchange BTC balance.

From December 10 to 29 last year, exchange BTC balances continued to increase. Based on historical experience, whenever exchange BTC balances rise, BTC prices tend to underperform. This is an important signal of on-chain selling pressure. Fortunately, after January the balances started declining, and BTC rebounded slightly. Whether we can break through this resistance ultimately depends on whether buying power is strong enough to absorb the selling pressure on exchanges — that is, how strong the demand is to transfer coins out of exchanges. This isn't the only factor, but it's absolutely the most critical one.

Now let's look at the movements of large funds. Among single million-dollar-level transfers, large holders transferring 1-10 million dollars are marked in yellow, while whales over 10 million are marked in red. Around mid-April last year, big money collectively transferred coins out, and BTC surged directly from 85,000 to 95,000. Back then, million-level large holders were the main force. Now big money is also transferring out, but the scale is noticeably smaller than last year. So my assessment is that current buying momentum isn't strong enough to replicate last year's rapid reversal rally. It's more likely to be two steps forward, one step back—slowly repairing market sentiment, requiring more time to accumulate, and needing external stimulation to cooperate.