Recent Thoughts

1. 76000 probably isn't the top of this rebound wave, but my psychological expectation has already been adjusted down by around 3000 points compared to a month ago.
2. Discussing tops and bottoms has little practical meaning; discussing ranges is more meaningful. For example, above 77000 is the top range of this rebound, and below 59000 is the bottom range of the next decline.
3. Value investing combined with fundamentals and macro factors always beats speculative trading based solely on technicals and liquidity. The essence here is that the two have different entry barriers.
4. It's not very meaningful to discuss the bear market bottom right now, even though we're quite clear the bottom range should be in the 37000-49000 zone.
5. If we're looking for a bottom now, we're looking for the first half's bottom, which should be between 52000-56000. What's fairly certain is that the first half shouldn't go below 49000 (the low point from August 5, 2024).
6. This bear market moved too fast, which is why many people didn't react to the decline in late January-early February. Currently, the probability of this bear market completing 7 weekly-level structures is increasing. According to this projection, after closing out the current long positions, we can still make three more trades within the year.
For reference, the 2018 bear market only had 3 structures, while the 2022 bear market had 5 structures. In other words, cryptocurrency's current structure is becoming increasingly complex, which means retail traders can't make money even if they understand cycles.
The reason I reached this conclusion earlier is that the 2019-2021 bull market only had 5 weekly-level structures; whereas the 2023-2025 bull market had 7 weekly-level structures.
If we extrapolate based on an average of 4 months (3 months up, 5 months down) to complete one weekly-level structure, the next bull market has a probability of completing 9 weekly-level structures.
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