Since the liquidity drought on October 11th, Bitcoin has surprisingly managed to rally for 5 consecutive bullish candles. The logic behind this is quite straightforward—shorts are heavily accumulated. Look at how exchanges are aggressively sweeping spot orders, which clearly is forcing the shorts to capitulate. In the short term, everyone is waiting for some positive news to land; if institutions enter the market, it could trigger a liquidation of many. Conversely, even if bad news comes, there's no need to fear, as exchanges can continue to buy spot to support the market. The key to the overall market movement still depends on the comparison of the number of longs and shorts. Whoever has more chips and higher confidence will dominate the upcoming rhythm.

The Federal Reserve's January policy meeting results are out: the probability of holding interest rates steady exceeds 80%, but the signals behind this may leave many feeling disappointed. Let's first see how the market interprets this data. The expectation of no rate hike in January has already been priced in, and it’s unlikely to cause any significant market impact. The real question is— the probability of a rate cut in March has not exceeded 50%. This means that investors hoping for an earlier liquidity release may be disappointed in the short term. The upward momentum of risk assets, especially highly liquid-sensitive assets like Bitcoin, could be suppressed by this cautious sentiment. The US dollar and Treasury yields are beginning to find support. The delay in rate cut expectations implies that US interest rates will stay high for longer. This puts real pressure on dollar-denominated assets—and Bitcoin is no exception. When the dollar strengthens and Treasury yields rise, funds flowing into risk assets will naturally decrease. But that’s not the whole story. Every inflation report and employment data release could change the situation. If the data weakens, the probability of a rate cut in March could spike, benefiting Bitcoin and the entire crypto market; conversely, if the data remains strong, the first rate cut might be pushed back to May or June, further increasing the adjustment pressure on the crypto market. Ultimately, Bitcoin is highly sensitive to global liquidity expectations. The market has already lowered its expectations for a "spring liquidity feast," shifting focus to macroeconomic data itself and Bitcoin’s own narrative (such as spot ETF fund flows, halving cycles, etc.). In the short term, volatility may increase accordingly. The advice for investors is simple: instead of constantly watching the probability numbers change daily, spend time focusing on inflation and employment data over the next two months. Those are the real factors that can influence market direction.

YOU ARE BUYING INTO REDISTRIBUTION GOOD LUCK I WANTED TO SEE MYSELF FLIP BULL BUT MARKET GIVES MORE REASONS TO NOT #bitcoin