Bitcoin Rebound's Key Depends on Iran's Stance, Ceasefire News Sways Market Risk Appetite

Gate News: Recent reports about the possibility of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran have triggered a global market shock, leading to a short-term rebound in Bitcoin. Israeli media states that Washington is pushing for a one-month ceasefire plan, but Iran denies any negotiations are taking place, causing the market to react strongly to headlines rather than actual progress in the conflict.

Analysts point out that this conflict has entered a new phase. Iran’s influence on the global markets is no longer limited to military actions but also involves affecting expectations to influence oil prices and risk assets. If the market believes a ceasefire is imminent, oil prices will fall and Treasury yields will decline, reducing inflation pressures and boosting risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin. Conversely, if Iran refuses peace talks and tensions persist, financial conditions will tighten, and Bitcoin’s upside potential will be limited.

Currently, Bitcoin fluctuates between risk appetite recovery and inflation concerns, with its price highly dependent on Iran’s next move. A ceasefire could open a new bullish window for Bitcoin, while ongoing conflict may maintain high market volatility and fragility. Data from Polymarket shows most traders bet that the war will end before June 2026, which heightens market sensitivity.

Additionally, increased behind-the-scenes diplomatic activity and mediators’ involvement suggest the conflict may be nearing its end. This means Bitcoin’s short-term trend may revolve around risk appetite and geopolitical news rather than actual military developments. Investors should closely monitor Iran’s stance on the ceasefire proposal, as its decision will directly impact whether Bitcoin can sustain its recovery from current volatility.