#美联储降息 The logical chain of the US dollar depreciation is gradually becoming clear. The nearly 10% decline in the US dollar by 2025 is the largest in 17 years, driven by reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve easing—Polymarket data shows a 96% chance of rate cuts before June next year. Trump’s potential replacement of the Fed Chair could further lower interest rates. All these policy signals point in the same direction.

From an on-chain perspective, the impact on Bitcoin is quantifiable. Easing monetary policy means the real purchasing power of the dollar continues to decline, and Bitcoin’s role as a non-sovereign asset hedge will be re-priced. ING Chief Economist’s judgment—that the Fed remains in easing mode—actually provides a time frame for this cycle.

The key question is how capital flows. Once rate cut expectations shift from the probabilities on Polymarket to actual policy, I will focus on several signals: the scale of institutional spot inflows, changes in whale address holdings, and fluctuations in contract funding rates. These data points can more accurately reflect actual allocation needs, rather than just sentiment.

The growth driver in 2026 may truly arrive, but the current focus is on identifying the actual pace of capital entering during the process of gradually confirming expectations.