PrinceSuanni

Tonight's ADP Non-Farm Payrolls
As of now, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January is less than 20%
If the ADP report does not show significantly worsening employment conditions, the probability of a rate cut will likely remain unchanged. Market volatility should not be too high.
The market has already largely priced in the negative factors, so once positive news appears, the chances and space for a rise are still considerable.
#美联储降息 #加密市场观察

Morgan Stanley issues Bitcoin ETF and SOL ETF
As a veteran financial giant, Morgan Stanley is once again launching ETFs, operating under the Morgan Stanley brand.
In the case of Bitcoin's weakness, we hope this positive news can help push Bitcoin higher.
Now, veteran capital is gradually entering the cryptocurrency market. The so-called cryptocurrency as a capital scam can rest in peace. As a top-tier investment bank, Morgan Stanley has some of the smartest people in the world working there. Are they any less capable than us retail investors?

January 7 Daily Market Analysis
Price Action Analysis
1. Bitcoin attempted twice to break through 94,500 but failed both times. After the US stock market opened yesterday, trading volume increased and the market weakened directly. The trend line has been broken, and the upward channel structure has also been disrupted. This round of rise from 87,000 to 94,500 can basically be declared over. Breaking through 94,500 later is no longer significantly related to this movement; it marks the start of a new trend.
2. Bitcoin now shows a clear climax pattern. The surge to 94,500 last night was one phas

I don't know why some people missed out on this market movement, and some even dared to short.
I had no expectations for this kind of meme coin like doge, so I missed the first move. Afterwards, I placed limit buy orders and waited for a breakout, so overall it wasn't too bad.
I previously analyzed that there would be a big move for Bitcoin, and although I missed the first part, I went long all the way after breaking 90,400. #加密市场开年反弹 #ETH走势分析

Coinbase Bitcoin is now trading at a premium, and the panic index has risen from around 20 to 44.
And most people have basically missed this round of market movement.
Why did they wait so long?
Borrowing a famous quote from a skit:
When stocks go up, you know to buy, but it's too late!
When a car hits a tree, you know to turn!
When a car crashes into a wall, you know to turn!
When you commit a crime and get sentenced, you know to repent!
When your runny nose drips into your mouth, you remember to wipe it off!

January 5 Daily Market Analysis
Price Action Analysis
1. This morning, global markets generally rose, Asia-Pacific stocks also increased, precious metals went up, US stock futures rose before the market opened, and cryptocurrencies are also on the rise. Therefore, the negative news from Venezuela has been largely absorbed by the market.
2. Returning to the crypto market, I already mentioned yesterday that Bitcoin's pattern has been broken, so the logical stance is to remain bullish. During the live session, I also told everyone that shorting is not recommended; shorting can only be short-term

Everyone is mocking Trump for things like old age dementia, etc.
Trump capturing Maduro alive shows he's very alert and especially smart.
Last time, the airstrike on Iran was on the weekend; this time, capturing Maduro alive was also on the weekend, aiming to stabilize the stock market, but cryptocurrencies couldn't hold steady. Since the US stock market is closed on weekends, they are pushing hard during this time.
Moreover, from this lightning-fast strike, it's clear that this attack was well-planned long in advance, definitely not a sudden, impulsive action.
Precise strikes on air defense f

FOMC Minutes Show Growing Disagreement
The main issue remains whether to prioritize maintaining stability or supporting growth
To support employment, rate cuts are needed, but this could lead to rising inflation
To curb inflation, no rate cuts or even rate hikes are necessary, which could result in significant unemployment
Based on past experience, the probability of the Federal Reserve prioritizing inflation control over employment is higher, with the 1980s even seeing rate hikes up to 24%. Such a scenario is unimaginable and hard to comprehend today.
A rate hike to 24% is quite extreme, but

The market looks like dead water; after analyzing it over and over, it's all the same.
No trend, no volatility—what's the point of analyzing? Might as well run a grid bot.
In this kind of market, there's no room and it's easy to retrace.
For trend traders, it's better to just give up on this phase.
For range traders, place orders at fixed points and don't worry about the rest.

Tomorrow at 3 a.m., the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting.
Monetary policy provides the most direct insight into the FOMC's view of the current U.S. economy.
For the FOMC, the most important factors are still employment and inflation, but different interpretations mean there are significant differences in internal views on employment and inflation.
Additionally, it clearly shows the current market outlook of hawks and doves.

December 30 Daily Market Analysis
News
Yesterday, gold dropped up to 5% intraday, silver fell over 10% intraday, and funds are exiting the precious metals market. From this perspective, it is positive for US stocks and cryptocurrencies.
The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in January has already dropped to 16.1%, essentially confirming that there will be no rate cut in January. Fortunately, the market has already been digesting this expectation.
Price Action Analysis
The BTC long-term cycle still has not broken out of the box, having moved for more than ten days. The b

The post was just published a short while ago, and $BTC BTC, $ETH ETH, and $SOL SOL have already broken through as I expected #ETH走势分析 #今日你看涨还是看跌？

Coinbase's Bitcoin is at a negative premium, indicating that at least in the North American market, Bitcoin selling exceeds buying.
Recently, the precious metals market has also been doing well, so the English-speaking community is now generally bearish on Bitcoin and has shifted to the precious metals market.
When the whole world is bearish on a certain asset, that asset often has the potential to rise.
When the whole world is bullish on a certain asset, that asset is usually nearing its end.
#加密市场小幅回暖 #ETH走势分析
See the sentiment of each bull and bear cycle for details.

Bitcoin has been consolidating for over a month since November 26th. The daily chart shows 30 K-lines of adjustment, indicating a clear halt after the black swan waterfall. Currently, Bitcoin's consolidation still requires about ten days to half a month of adjustment, or it can be understood as accumulation, and the logic is the same.
From a price action perspective, as long as the box range adjustment lasts long enough, with at least a 50% probability of either rise or fall, combined with the broader macro background, Bitcoin has already broken through a key trend line. Subjectively, the prob

December 27 Daily Market Analysis
News
Due to the influence of Christmas, the trading volume of the US stock market yesterday significantly decreased, with most activity concentrated in quantitative trading. The US stock market also experienced a clear oscillation pattern, with opening and closing prices remaining close.
Recently, the best-performing assets have been precious metals, including gold, silver, and copper, especially silver, which rose nearly 10% intraday. A large portion of funds has flowed into the precious metals market, making the cryptocurrency market weaker now.
Price Action