【链文】Fed announced a rate cut as expected, but forward guidance hints at future policy uncertainty, and market pricing has not fully reflected this. Meanwhile, signals of deterioration in the labor market and the Fed Chair's ambiguous statements indicate a fundamental shift in the macro environment since the beginning of this year.
More notably, from a technical perspective. Bitcoin, since initiating a new bull cycle, has fallen below a key long-term trend line for the first time—this often correlates with market fluctuations around mid-term elections in history. Interestingly, even as the Fed pushes for balance sheet expansion, liquidity in the crypto market has become tight, with retail trading activity noticeably insufficient. This suggests that political factors may have a greater impact on the market than investors had anticipated.
In the current environment, tactical positioning and risk control are being significantly emphasized. According to market analysis at the end of October, a consolidation or even a bear market trend could persist longer, and investors need to prepare psychologically and