21:07
📊 NFP Night Flash Report | Dollar Cools Off, Crypto Heats Up?
August NFP came in at just +75K (with July’s +73K together marking multi-year lows), and unemployment ticked up to 4.3%. U.S. bond yields dropped to ~4.2%, the DXY slipped, and markets instantly priced September rate-cut odds at over 90%.
⚖️ Macro Translation
Weak NFP = Fed forced dovish → Dollar drops, risk assets pump.
Strong NFP (if it had surprised big) = Dollar spikes, crypto gets slashed.
Historical notes: In bull years, ETH fell -21% (2017) and -12% (2021) in September. But October “Uptober” has often averaged +20% gains. September is for trimming; October is for sprinting.
📊 Market Watch
FedWatch: 95% odds of a rate cut — nearly locked in.
Institutions: August ETF + treasury inflows bought ~2.5M ETH, 33x monthly issuance.
Whales: Some BTC OGs rotated into ETH and fully staked → clear capital shift.
Volatility: On NFP day, BTC’s average move is 1.7x that of a normal day.
🎯 Key Levels
$BTC : Support at 108K, resistance 112K → 116K.
$ETH : Battleground at 4,250 — hold that and target 4.8K → 5K.
$SOL : $200 is a refuel zone; with volume, targets 216 → 238.
🧭 Trading Playbook
Conservative: Wait for confirmation before chasing — less upside, less risk.
Aggressive: Scale into dips (BTC 108K, ETH 4.25K, SOL near 200), stops must be tight.
Swing: September chop is the “bull market lunchbox” — buy retracements, keep year-end targets (BTC 120K, ETH 5K+) intact.
🐂 Conclusion
This isn’t just another data day — it’s a policy reset. Weak NFP = Fed goes dovish, dollar loses footing, crypto takes the baton. September may wobble, but October is often the launchpad. The question is: are you just watching, or getting on board?
---------------------
📊 非農夜速報｜美元涼了，幣圈嗨了？
8 月非農僅 +75K（連 7 月 +73K 一起創近年低點），失業率升到 4.3%。美債殖利率掉到 ~4.2%，美元指數 DXY 回落，市場直接把 9 月降息機率定價到 90%+。
⚖️ 宏觀翻譯
弱非農 = Fed 不得不鴿 → 美元掉、風險資產嗨。
強非農（假設爆表）= 美元噴、幣圈挨刀。
歷史考古：牛市年份的九月，ETH 曾跌過 -21%（2017）、-12%（2021）；但 10 月「Uptober」常平均漲 20%+。九月健身，十月衝刺。
📊 市場觀察
FedWatch：降息機率 95%，幾乎篤定。
機構：八月 ETF +金庫買進 ~2.5M ETH，是當月新發行量的 33 倍。
鯨魚：有比特幣 OG 出貨，轉倉到 ETH 並全額質押 → 資金明顯轉向。
波動性：NFP 日 BTC 波幅常是平日的 1.7 倍。
🎯 技術位
$BTC ：支撐 108K，上壓 112K → 116K
$ETH ：多空分水嶺在 4,250，站穩再挑戰 4.8K → 5K
$SOL ：200 美元是補給站，放量上攻看 216 → 238
🧭 操作思路
保守派：等確認站穩再追，少吃戲也少挨刀。
積極派：分批低吸（BTC 108K、ETH 4.25K、SOL 200 附近），止損寫死。
波段派：九月震盪就是「牛市便當盒」—逢回加倉，年底目標不變（BTC 120K、ETH 5K+）。
🐂 結論
這不是普通數據日，而是政策校正場。弱非農 = Fed 必鴿，美元失勢，幣圈接棒。九月可能抖，但十月往往是火箭發射台。你要決定自己是看戲，還是上車。
- 9