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這波油價,其實已經從"衝擊"變成"消耗戰"了~
自2月底美伊冲突以來,油價在高位橫了整整三周。別小看這段時間,價格高不可怕,久才可怕。一旦維持在高位,影響就不再是情緒,而是開始實打實侵蝕經濟基本面~
從傳導鏈來看也很清晰:油價高 → 成本上升 → 通膨粘性 → 利率難降 → 需求走弱。這個過程不會立刻爆發,但會在接下來的經濟數據裡一點點體現出來~
用道氏理論的視角,這更像是宏觀變數開始主導趨勢的階段,市場不再單純靠流動性推動,而是進入"基本面消化期"。
所以接下來別指望數據有多亮眼,
很多時候,市場不是突然變差,而是慢慢變難受~