A lot of people have been asking me why I'm going long at this time. Let me share my trading logic here tonight.

First, the Middle East situation will become increasingly similar to the Russia-Ukraine conflict over time, with its impact on the crypto space gradually weakening. Everyone understands the boy who cried wolf story—a ceasefire and peace talks are only a matter of time. The main issue is that Trump's mouth never stops—one moment he's talking about fighting, the next about negotiations, causing market chaos. It's clear his real intention lies elsewhere; he's a famous candlestick master, those who know, know.

Second, setting aside the impact of news, let's return to technical structure. We're currently in a rebound phase. Bitcoin has been consolidating at the bottom for two months, with highs and lows continuously compressing the trading range, indicating we're not far from breaking out of the box. Of course, the major trend is still downward, but during this process we need rebounds to gather strength and test resistance, then accelerate the decline.

Third, given we're in this rebound phase, the daily line is stabilizing above the middle Bollinger Band, and Bitcoin's closes over the past two days have both been above the 70,000 level, suggesting there's still support below in the short term. Following the correction framework, the bulls should at least test around 74,300, with the previous high at 76,000. This suggests we still have 3,000-4,000 points of space above. Wait patiently for this rebound wave to complete, then go short after testing.